Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
310 AM CDT THU SEP 26 2002

...TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF LOUISIANA
   WEST OF GRAND ISLE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH...

ALL INTERESTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM LOCAL ACTION STATEMENTS FROM
THIS OFFICE REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF ISIDORE.

OBVIOUSLY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST WILL BE HEAVILY DICTATED
BY THE TRACK OF ISIDORE. ISIDORE HAS REACHED THE COAST JUST WEST OF
GRAND ISLE AS OF 3 AM THIS MORNING CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH ABOUT 13
MPH. RADAR IMAGERY HAS BEEN SHOWING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH AROUND 5 TO 6K. TRACK MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE NNE WITH
TIME BUT NOT MOVE QUITE AS FAST AS AVN DEPICTING BUT NEAR AS SLOW AS
NGM AND ETC MODELS. THUS...WITH WRAP AROUND RAIN AND TSTMS TODAY
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE RAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BANDS ROTATING AROUND ISIDORE. THUS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH WITH INTENSITY
GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED DRY AIR
SPREADING SOUTHEAST OUT OF TEXAS TURNING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST GULF TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OCCURRING MAINLY IN THE NEXT 8 TO 10 HOURS.
SEE LATEST FLASH FLOOD STATEMENTS(FLSNEW) AND LOCAL ACTION STATEMENTS
(HLSNEW) AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS (FFWNEW) FOR FLOODING INFORMATION
AND ANY SPECIFIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SEVERAL TORNADOES HAVE ALSO BEEN
REPORTED IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER OF ISIDORE.

AS THE CENTER OF ISIDORE TURNS MORE NORTHEASTWARD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AND END FROM THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST. SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED WEATHER BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
IS ON TAP FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF ISIDORE BY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST.

OUTSIDE OF THE FLOODING THREAT...THE NEXT CONCERN SURROUNDS AN
INLAND HIGH WIND THREAT WHICH IS OBVIOUS WITH A STRONG LANDFALLING
TROPICAL STORM. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH PLACES TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY...WILL CONTINUE THE
APPROPRIATE NPW ADDRESSING THE INLAND HIGH WIND THREAT WITH THE
EARLY MORNING ZONE PACKAGE.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

MCB 74/69/86/66 +410  BTR 75/71/87/67 +310
MSY 80/73/86/71 +210  GPT 80/76/83/73 +310

.NEW...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM KPQL TO THE
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASIN OUT 60 NM.
LA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING LAZ038-040-046>050 -056>070
  ...FLOOD WATCH LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070.
  ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING LAZ034>037-039.
MS...TROPICAL STORM WARNING MSZ080>082
  ...FLOOD WATCH MSZ068>071-077-080>082
  ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING MSZ068>071-077.

05

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED TO INCLUDE NEW TORNADO WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1155 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2002

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR
   EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
   MOST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND ALL OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...

...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME
   NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN HALF
   OF SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION TOWARD
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM LOCAL ACTION STATEMENTS ISSUED
BY THIS OFFICE.

.ACTIONS...LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS...STORM SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS
SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN YOUR AREA. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS...OR YOUR LOCAL
CABLE OR SATELLITE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATEST INFORMATION
CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS, LA
114 AM CDT THU SEP 26 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1140 PM    GRAND ISLE                LA   52 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
09/25/02   JEFFERSON

1230 AM    GOLDEN MEADOW             LA   TORNADO
09/26/02   LAFOURCHE                      TORNADO REPORTED NEAR
                                          FLOOD GATE. ROOFS OFF 2
                                          SHEDS. REPORTED BY SHERIFFS
                                          DEPARTMENT.