Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS New Orleans, LA

000 
WGUS74 KLIX 260011 CCA
FFSNEW
LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-260200-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...CORRECTION TO CODING...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
657 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2002

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR ORLEANS...
ST.BERNARD...PLAQUEMINES...JEFFERSON...ST. CHARLES...AND LAFOURCHE
PARISHES.

AT 7 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN HAS DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE TO ONE AND
HALF INCHES WERE OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 11 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED IN SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA AND IN ST. BERNARD PARISH
WITH 3 TO 6 INCH AMOUNTS COMMON ELSEWHERE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER IS COVERING THE
ROADWAY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. THE ROAD MAY BE WASHED OUT OR THE
DEPTH OF THE WATER WILL BE UNKNOWN. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF
MOVING WATER TO OVERTAKE A VEHICLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV OR RADIO FOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
235 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2002

...TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE CONTINUING ITS NORTHWARD TRACK...

ALL INTERESTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM LOCAL ACTION STATEMENTS FROM
THIS OFFICE REGARDING THE PROGRESSION OF ISIDORE.

OBVIOUSLY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST WILL BE HEAVILY DICTATED
BY THE TRACK OF ISIDORE. ISIDORE IS STILL PROGGED TO MAKE LANDFALL
SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THU MOST LIKELY AS
A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. LATEST HPC QPF PROGS STILL INDICATE AROUND
10 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA...AND
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

OUTSIDE OF THE FLOODING THREAT...THE NEXT CONCERN SURROUNDS AN
INLAND HIGH WIND THREAT WHICH IS OBVIOUS WITH A STRONG LANDFALLING
TROPICAL STORM. GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST WHICH PLACES TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE NPW ADDRESSING THE
INLAND HIGH WIND THREAT WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEHIND DEPARTING ISIDORE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AROUND THE FRI TIME PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

MCB 70/77/69/85 +92-  BTR 71/78/70/86 +82-
MSY 75/81/73/87 +93-  GPT 75/80/72/85 +93-

.NEW...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT
FROM KPQL TO THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASIN OUT 60 NM.
LA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH LAZ038-040-046>050
-056>070
  ...FLOOD WATCH LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070.
  ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING LAZ034>037-039.
MS...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH MSZ080>082
  ...FLOOD WATCH MSZ068>071-077-080>082
  ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING MSZ068>071-077.

09

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-261200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1245 PM CDT WED SEP 25 2002

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
   LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
   MOST OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND ALL OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
NEW ORLEANS...LATE TONIGHT. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ISIDORE. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FROM
THE COASTAL WATERS INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN BANDS
WILL PRODUCE SQUALLS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND STORM SURGE...
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO
4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND PORTION OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA NEAR THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER...TO 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST. ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 15 INCHES OF RAIN
WHERE REPEAT BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN OCCUR. HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS...SMALL STREAMS...AND LOW LYING AND
FLOOD PRONE AREAS. FLOODING WILL BE WORSE IN AREAS NEAR THE TIDAL
LAKES AND COAST WHERE HIGH TIDES WILL BLOCK DRAINAGE. STORM SURGE
FLOODING FROM TIDES OF 3 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE MAKES LANDFALL.

.HIGH WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 70 MPH WILL OCCUR IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL SPREAD INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

 .ACTIONS...
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...STORM SPOTTERS...AND
HAM RADIO OPERATORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL BE REQUIRED
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX
(ALL LOWER CASE).