Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS New Orleans, LA

000 
WGUS74 KLIX 071818
FFSNEW
MSC047-059-071845-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
115 PM CDT SAT SEP 7 2002

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR HARRISON AND 
JACKSON COUNTIES EXPIRED AT 115 PM...

RADAR ESTIMATES THAT BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED 5 
INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRED DURING THE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
SOUTHERN JACKSCON COUNTY AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HARRISON COUNTIES. 
THE AIRPORT AT PASCAGOULA RECORDED 3.94 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN 700 
AM AND 100 PM...WITH NEARLY 3 INCHES OF RAIN OCCURRING BETWEEN 
BETWEEN 700 AM AND 1000 AM. JACKSON COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED 
SIGNFICANT STREET FLOODING IN MANY AREAS OF SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY 
DURING THE MORNING. 

AT 100 PM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF 
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HARRISON AND JACKSON COUNITES. 
SINCE 1130 AM THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE RAIN AND 
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED. DUE THE DECREASE IN RAINFALL...THE 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 

MOTORISTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL FLOODED STREETS 
HAVE DRAINED AND NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWASY.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE IN EFFECT OF ALL OF THE MISSISSIPPI 
COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FOR POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL 
HEAVY RAINFALL.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
230 PM CDT FRI SEP 6 2002

ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST SETTING UP THIS MORNING. THE GOOD NEWS
THOUGH IS THAT THE NWP GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY COME INTO SOME GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER ALTHOUGH THE AVN CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRENDS THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH
MUCH OF THE ENERGY FROM WHAT USED TO BE EDOUARD MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN GETTING INGESTED INTO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND T.S. FAY...THE AVN MAY NOT HAVE BEEN THAT FAR
OFF. PRESENT THINKING NOW IS THAT DEEP TROPICAL FLOW OCCURRING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN RESPONSE TO FAY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO
HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE.

WILL FIRST ADDRESS THE FFA AND THE CFW THAT IS IN EFFECT. WHILE MUCH
RAIN DID FALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST LEADING INTO ST TAMMANY
PARISH...THE AXIS OF THIS RAIN IS ACTUALLY VERY NARROW AS SUGGESTED
BY STORM TOTAL PRECIP. IN ADDITION...FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IF NOT HIGHER ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
WITH THE NWP MODELS NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE HIGHER AXIS OF QPF WILL
LIKELY SHIFT MORE INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...HAVE DECIDED TO DROP
THE FFA FOR NOW AND JUST USE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE ZONES. WILL
KEEP THE CWF GOING THOUGH GIVEN THE FACT THAT EASTERLY WINDS AROUND
20 TO 25 KT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ALLOWING TIDES
TO GENERALLY RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

AS STATED ABOVE...THE NWP GUIDANCE IS NOW TRYING TO SHIFT MUCH OF
THE ENERGY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THIS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER HIGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WHILE FAY TRIES TO DRIFT
WESTWARD. TODAY THOUGH SHOULD BE IT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE MODELS DO HAVE FAY SHEARING MUCH OF THE ENERGY
MORE INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND TEXAS STARTING SUN. WITH SFC FLOW
THOUGH REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND FORECAST TIME HEIGHTS
INDICATING SOME DECENT MOISTURE LINGERING...RAIN CHANCES FOR SUN
SHOULD STILL BE NEAR THE HIGH SCT CAT MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA. MAY SEE A BREAK FROM THE RAIN ALL TOGETHER AROUND THE WED
TIME FRAME AS THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE STILL HAS A FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ALLOWING NORTHERLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR
TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREA.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

MCB 85/71/88/70 7341  BTR 84/73/88/72 8452
MSY 84/76/87/75 8452  GPT 85/73/86/72 7331

.NEW...SCA FROM KPQL TO THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 60NM
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH LAZ038-040-050-058-060>064-068>070.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MSZ080>082.

09

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-071800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
615 AM CDT SAT SEP 7 2002

...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE TO PASCAGOULA
INCLUDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS...

.SYNOPSIS...A DEEP TROPICAL AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORMS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. THE STRONGER AND LONGER LIVED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS NEAR 40 MPH.

.HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD
TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THAT MAY IMPACT LOW LYING
AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS. RAINFALL RATES AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES PER
HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.COASTAL FLOODING...
EAST WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL CAUSE TIDES TO RUN 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG THE COAST FROM GRAND ISLE EASTWARD.

.MARINE HAZARDS...
IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY IN
THESE WATERS. ADDITIONALLY...THIS ENVIRONMENT IS HEAVILY CONDUCIVE
FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT AND BOATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE
EVASIVE ACTION SHOULD THE SITUATION WARRANT.

.ACTIONS...ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR WEATHER EVENTS VIA
NOAA RADIO AND LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO STATIONS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX
(ALL LOWER CASE).