Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
300 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS WAVE SEVERAL WAVES UPSTREAM TO
MOVE IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 17Z SHOWED
HIGH CENTER NORTHWEST OF OGA WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM NEAR ONL TO BBW AND MCK. SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF THE BLACK HILLS. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS
RETURNS OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND OVER THE PANHANDLE INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO.

MODEL BLEND USED WITH ETA RUNNING TOO DRY AND AVN WITH BETTER RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG EXISTING BOUNDARIES THIS EVENING.
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TO RECEIVE MUCH NEEDED RAIN IF AVN VERIFIES WITH
MODEL POINTING TO CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING
THIS EVENING. THEN SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT AS H5 WAVE MOVES ACROSS. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
THIS EVENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO BE THE DRIVING FORCE WITH STORMS
TO MOVE MAINLY SOUTHEAST.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO END AS H5 WAVE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY. H5 RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST SHARPENS AND BUILDS
EAST SLOWLY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A MAINLY DRY WEEK WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

THE H5 RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST ON FRIDAY WITH WESTERLIES SHIFTING
NORTH ACROSS CANADA. SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH MRF GENERATING SOME QPF. BELIEVE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF
STATES WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN WITH WEAK WIND FLOW IN PLACE.
DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE BUT AT THIS
POINT WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MONDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWING AND BECOMING STATIONARY. THE GULF OPENS UP OVERNIGHT
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LBF...NONE.

KECK

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-252030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1125 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2002

...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TODAY.  EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BRING ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.  THIS ALONG WITH HEATING THROUGH THE DAY WILL
RESULT IN THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE BY EVENING.  A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES WILL KICK OFF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS WILL THEN PUSH
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE
EVENING.  ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT BE EXTREMELY STRONG A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL POSING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.