Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
235 PM CDT THU AUG 22 2002

...FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY IS THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...

...18Z SYNOPSIS...
     AT THE SURFACE, THERE WAS A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHERN KANSAS TO A LOW IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE GOES
DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWED A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT IN
THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WIND PROFILERS
AND THE 6.7U IMAGERY INDICATED A BROAD CYCLONIC PATTERN ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S WITH COLD ADVECTION FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. A PLUME OF MOISTURE WAS COMING ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG AN
AXIS FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA TO NORTHEAST
KANSAS ABOUT TOPEKA.
...MODELS...
     THE ETA SHOWS DECENT CONTINUITY WITH LAST NIGHTS RUN TO 72
HOURS, WHILE THE 22/12Z AVN/GLOBAL AND THE 22/00Z MRF/GLOBAL ARE
VERY CLOSE OUT TO 96 HOURS. BY 120 HOURS THOUGH, THE AVN/GLOBAL IS
SHOWING A SLOWING TREND WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH AFTER THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SO, FOR DAYS 3 AND
4, I WILL USE THE AVN/GLOBAL, AND, OUT THROUGH DAY2, THE ETA. THE
DAY5 FORECAST WILL SMOOTH THE TRANSITION BETWEEN DAY4 AND DAY6.
     THE 22/00Z RUN OF THE GLOBAL IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 21/00Z RUN
IN KEEPING THE SOUTHERN RIDGE FLATTENED. IT IS ALSO FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN KEEPING THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL U.S. IN AN ACTIVE ZONAL PATTERN.
HOWEVER, AFTER DAY3, THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF
THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. THE PSU ENSEMBLE INDICATES 20-40 VARIABILITY IN THE GLOBAL
RUN, AND THE ECMWF DOES NOT LEND MUCH SUPPORT TO THE MRF/GLOBAL
SOLUTION BEYOND DAY3. AS A RESULT, MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE
MRF/GLOBAL SOLUTION.

...FORECAST...
     ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR
THIS EVENING, THE FORCING JUST DOESNT SHOW UP UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THEN IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WHERE MOISTURE IS LIMITED.
SUBSIDENCE WITH THE COLD ADVECTION AREA WOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS
CONVECTION IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. A 20 PERCENT PROBABILITY MAY BE TOO
HIGH. AS OF THIS WRITING, I WILL NOT MENTION ANY PRECIPITATION FOR
TONIGHT. THINGS LOOK MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
BY 18Z FRIDAY, LIS FROM 800MB ARE -4C TO -7C THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SB AND ELEVATED CAPES ABOVE 2000J/KG. EVEN WITH THE
INSTABILITY, THE CONDENSATION DEFICITS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 100MB. SO, CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED TO
START WITH, AND THAT SHOULD HOLD THE AMOUNTS DOWN. THE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE FIELDS FAVOR THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. SO, I
WILL GO WITH 30-50 PERCENT PROBABILITIES IN THE AREA NORTH AND WEST
OF ONL-BBW-LXN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH AND EAST OF MRR-SNY SATURDAY.
...DAYS 5-7...
     THE MRF/GLOBAL INDICATES SOME PRETTY STRONG FORCING IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA TUESDAY FROM LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, 700MB 2D-
FRONTOGENESIS, AND 700-500MB DCVA. IT ALSO INDICATES INSTABILITY AND
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OF 100MB OR BELOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS. SINCE MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WITH THE PROBLEMS THE GLOBAL HAS HAD
WITH THE CURRENT DROUGHT, I WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST EXCEPT FOR ADDING DAY7 AND SMOOTHING THE TRANSITION
BETWEEN THE FORECAST PERIODS.

.LBF...NONE.

SPRINGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE, NE
557 PM CDT THU AUG 22 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0550 PM    5 S BARTLETT              NE   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/22/02   WHEELER

JCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE, NE
635 PM CDT THU AUG 22 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0605 PM    4 W EUSTIS                NE   .75 INCH HAIL
08/22/02   FRONTIER

JCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE, NE
646 PM CDT THU AUG 22 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0600 PM    8 NE BROKEN BOW           NE   .88 INCH HAIL
08/22/02   CUSTER

0615 PM    9 NE BROKEN BOW           NE   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/22/02   CUSTER

JCB

NEZ028-029-038-071-230118-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
803 PM CDT THU AUG 22 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 628 CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CUSTER...FRONTIER...
GARFIELD...AND WHEELER COUNTIES...UNTIL 10 PM CDT...HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WATCH AREA
AND NO LONGER POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS FRONTIER AND CUSTER
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA FROM NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. AT THIS TIME...NO
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.

CLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE, NE
914 PM CDT THU AUG 22 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0905 PM    17 S BINGHAM              NE   .75 INCH HAIL
08/22/02   SHERIDAN

JCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED CITY/COUNTY LOCATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE, NE
914 PM CDT THU AUG 22 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0905 PM    28 NE OSHKOSH              NE   .75 INCH HAIL
08/22/02   GARDEN

JCB