Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
320 PM CST WED MAR 20 2002

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS...FRONT PUSHING STEADILY EWD ALONG THE NATCHEZ
TRACE PARKWAY WITH TSRA KICKING OFF THE SPRING SEASON FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. EXPECT GENERALLY 1-2 RAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY. STRONG POLAR
FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL FREEZE LIKELY N OF
I-20 EARLY FRIDAY AND MUCH OF CWFA EARLY SATURDAY. THE WEEKEND THEN
MODIFIES NICELY WITH NEXT RAIN THREAT FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN MORE TSRA BECOME LIKELY.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE EAST AND SOUTH
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD DISSIPATES IN THE
NORTHWEST. DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY BIG PROBLEMS FOR FLOODING AND DO NOT
EXPECT TO KEEP A MENTION OF SEVERE FOR THE EVENING AS MOST OF THE
WARMER UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE USED UP BY ONGOING CONVECTION. AIRMASS
ALREADY STABILIZING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
THAT MOVED INTO SERN MS FROM LA. SURFACE WAVE NEAR KMCB ON THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AS PRESSURES HAVE ONLY FALLEN
ABOUT 2MB IN 6 HOURS. COOLER AIR DOMINATES FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF
INCOMING MOUND OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR HEADING FOR THE DEEP SOUTH.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLD AIR ENTERING NRN NEBRASKA SHOULD REACH
NWRN MS ABOUT MIDDAY THURSDAY AND SWEEP TO THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE CENTER(NEAR 1030MB) OF THE COLD
AIR THROUGH NRN MS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SO THAT WHILE RECORD
LOWS NOT AS LIKELY...A BRIEF FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING AND MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY MORNING.
NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WRN UNITED STATES SUNDAY AND
HEADS TOWARD THE PLAINS ON MONDAY WHEN GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN. BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW PROBABLY TEAMING
UP ON TUESDAY BUT TIMING PROBLEMS DICTATE KEEPING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 051/065 035/055 030 +100-
MEI 052/068 036/056 028 +100-

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
211200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1016 AM CST WED MAR 20 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MOST OF MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AFTERNOON HEATING...RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE FROM THE FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

AN AREA SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JONESVILLE LOUISIANA TO JACKSON TO
MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITHIN THIS AREA THERE WILL BE ANOTHER AREA THAT
WILL HAVE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. THIS AREA WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.