Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CST FRI MAR 15 2002

COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NWRN AR THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PUSHING EWD AS SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES MOVE
TO THE NE IN SWLY UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE WAVE PERSISTS ALONG
BOUNDARY. COLD FRONT TO INCH INTO NW MS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AIR MASS
DESTABILIZES SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF FRONT WITH BEST VERTICAL
VELOCITY AND UPPER DIVERGENCE NRN ZONES. SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN ZONES WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
RANGE FROM 65-70 DEGREES. SCATTERED CONVECTION SRN AREAS SHOULD
DIMINISH THIS EVENING SINCE MAIN FORCING THAT AREA WILL BE
DIURNAL.

BEST THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NW ZONES TONIGHT.
AS SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS REGION THE WEAK CAP OBSERVED THIS MORNING
WILL ERODE. THIS WILL BE AREA OF BEST FORCING AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. UPPER FORCING WILL WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES
SLOWLY SEWD LATE TONIGHT BUT DYNAMICS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES BY SAT
MORNING.

SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST FROM NE MS ACROSS CENTRAL
ZONES INTO NE LA AROUND 18Z SAT. AS FRONTAL WAVE SHIFTS NWD WILL SEE
BOUNDARY SHIFT SLOWLY NWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IN WARM
SECTOR WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE SATURDAY WITH CAPE VALUES ABOVE 2500
MOST CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAIN PROBLEM
INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SAT WILL BE LACK OF FORCING
FOCUS BUT AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

NEXT SHORTWAVE SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH MORE ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL JET INTO WRN AND NW
ZONES. BEST OMEGA AND UPPER DIVERGENCE AGAIN FORECAST FOR NRN ZONES
SAT NIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT THE BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED INTO NW AREAS AS A
WARM FRONT THAT LIFTS TO NW OF FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WEAK
COLD FRONT SITS NEAR WRN EDGE OF FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE NEXT
FRONTAL WAVE MOVES IT BACK INTO NW MS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHIFTS INTO THE REGION SUN TO INCREASE UPPER
DIVERGENCE BUT MODELS DISAGREE ON STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH WEAKENING BOUNDARY. MOS LOOKS ON TARGET WITH CONTINUING CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE AREA. AVN SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL JET SUN NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE AND
SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GREATER THAT 1.5 INCHES ALL BUT SE MS.

FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUE. SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WED BUT SHIFTS EWD RAPIDLY. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO NW AR. FRONT MOVES INTO NW ZONES FRI AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP RETURNS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
JAN 62/76/60/78 5425
MEI 62/77/60/79 3424

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
155 PM CST FRI MAR 15 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BASTROP TO
SONDHEIMER LOUISIANA...TO BENTONIA...DURANT...AND MISTERTON
MISSISSIPPI.  THIS THREAT AREA INCLUDES THE
GREENVILLE...GREENWOOD...GRENADA...YAZOO CITY...AND HAMBURG
ARKANSAS AREAS.  THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MILES AN
HOUR.

SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON.	WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE 80S...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI.  DESPITE THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...A POCKET OF
WARM AIR...SOME 5000 TO 10000 FEET ABOVE THE EARTHS SURFACE WILL
PREVENT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.

BY THIS EVENING...COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM
TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS REGION.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS JUST OFF THE
EARTHS SURFACE...AN APPROACHING POCKET OF DRY AIR AROUND 10000
FEET...AND STRONG JET STREAM WINDS...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE SEVERE.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...THEN BEGIN MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY.
 WITH THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING WARM...MOIST...AND
UNSTABLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY.  THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MILES AN HOUR AND SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY BE
REQUIRED AFTER 700 PM THIS EVENING AROUND THE DELTA REGION.

...FLOODING...
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT.  WITH DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN ONE INCH MAY
OCCUR.	THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA
ROADWAYS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND OTHER FLOOD PRONE
AREAS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
331 PM CST FRI MAR 15 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0300 PM    MONTICELLO                MS   0.88 INCH HAIL
03/15/02   LAWRENCE                       E.M.A REPORTED NICKEL
                                          SIZE HAIL.