Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
620 PM CST THU JAN 31 2002

WARM MID LVLS CONTINUE TO KEEP CONVECTION SQUASHED FOR THE MOST PART
AS INSTABILITY WANES SOME WITH THE ONSET OF SUNDOWN. MAIN COOL POOL
AT MID LVLS LOOKS TO BE LIFTING WELL N OF THE AREA AS PREVIOUSLY
SEEN IN MODELS LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THUS THE THOUGHT OF ONLY ISOLATED
SEVERE LOOKS GOOD FOR THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CWFA. WEAK SQUALL LINE IS
GENERALLY ALONG A GREENWOOD...TO VICKSBURG...TO NATCHEZ LINE ALONG A
SLOW MOVING POLAR COLD FRONT...MOVING SLOWLY EAST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
INDIVIDUAL STORMS ALONG THE LINE ARE MOVING NE AT 40 MPH OR SO. SRN
END OF THE LINE IS LAGGING FROM THE REST DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
SUPPORT LIFTING WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS IS WHERE SOME LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR DUE TO TRAINING ALONG THE SLOWER END OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
EVENING FROM THE MS RIVER...TO THE I-55 CORRIDOR JUST BECAUSE SOME
DECENT DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND. LATER ON AS THE CONVECTION
HEADS E OF I-55...NOTHING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE IS EXPECTED AS
INSTABILITIES REALLY WEAKEN AS DOES THE SHEAR. WILL GO AHEAD AND
UPDATE ZONES FOR CURRENT TRENDS OF COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE. ADDING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING TO SRN ZONES OVERNIGHT.

JAN   47/51/28/56 9000
MEI   50/53/27/56 9100

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

05/

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
011200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
411 PM CST THU JAN 31 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SWEEP EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
PRIMARILY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ANYWHERE
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATEST RISK OF
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN OVER AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A EUPORA TO FOREST TO A MONTICELLO
LINE.

THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION HAS BECOME MOST UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND  WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LIE
CLOSE TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM.  AS THE SQUALL
LINE RUNS INTO THIS AIRMASS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH THEIR
PEAK INTENSITY WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE.  ANY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN FORM AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE COULD
ALSO ROTATE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A TORNADO.

THE OVERALL STORM INTENSITIES SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE SQUALL LINE MARCHES THROUGH EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
650 PM CST THU JAN 31 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0625 PM    3S YAZOO CITY             MS   WIND DAMAGE
01/31/02   YAZOO                          A FEW TREES DOWN

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
011200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
652 PM CST THU JAN 31 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THIS AREA IS EAST OF A GRENADA...TO YAZOO CITY...TO
NATCHEZ LINE...AND WEST OF A WEST POINT...TO NEWTON...TO COLUMBIA
LINE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES
WILL BE THE THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AT
20 MPH ACROSS THIS AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...RESULTING IN A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE OVERALL STORM INTENSITIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
INTO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED EAST OF
A WEST POINT...TO NEWTON...TO COLUMBIA LINE...ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR AS THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
011200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED WORDING THIRD PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
652 PM CST THU JAN 31 2002

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. THIS AREA IS EAST OF A GRENADA...TO YAZOO CITY...TO
NATCHEZ LINE...AND WEST OF A WEST POINT...TO NEWTON...TO COLUMBIA
LINE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES
WILL BE THE THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS.

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AT
20 MPH ACROSS THIS AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG WINDS ALOFT IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH A WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...RESULTING IN A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE OVERALL STORM INTENSITIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES INTO
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST
OF A WEST POINT...TO NEWTON...TO COLUMBIA LINE...ALTHOUGH GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR AS THE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.