Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1245 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2002

12Z AVN MODEL DELAYED TODAY THOUGH 12Z ETA IN BY LATE MORNING AND
WILL LEAN ON THIS MODEL COMBINED WITH EXTENDED MODELS LIKE CANADIAN
MRF...UKMET AND ECMWF. FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING CLEARING TONIGHT
AND WHEN NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES NEXT WEEK.

RADAR MOSAIC AT 1730Z HAS NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION FROM DANVILLE SW
TO SHELBYVILLE JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. CONVECTION MORE WIDESPREAD
NE OF DANVILLE AND MOVING EAST WITH FRONT. THIS FRONT TO PAST KLWV
AROUND 03Z AND WILL CONTINUE PROB30 CHANCE NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER
TIL THEN WITH SLIGHT RISK OF SVR EAST OF IL PER SPC. BROKEN CLOUDS
EXTEND WEST TO CENTRAL IA AND NW MO. LAYERED RH FIELS SHOW CLEARING
SKIES BY MIDNIGHT WHICH CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS. CURRENT LOWS ALSO
ON TRACK RANGING FROM NEAR 45 NORTH BY KGBG TO 55 SOUTH BY KLWV.
PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES OVER IL BY
12Z/SUN...THEN DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY SUN WITH RETURN
SOUTH FLOW SETTING UP. MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH OF I-70 AND PARTLY SUNNY
SOUTH PER ETA CURULE AND MILD HIGHS AROUND 75 AND LIGHTER WINDS THAN
TODAY.

NEW ETA RUN BRINGS QPF INTO NW HALF OF CWA MEMORIAL DAY WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE RACING EAST IN ZONAL FLOW AND WEAKENING INTO CENTRAL IL.
NOT SURE IF ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION CHANCES. 12Z
CANADIAN MODEL STILL KEEPS IT DRY MON AND PARTS OF 12Z AVN THAT ARE
IN IS DRY TOO. WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AND SEE WHAT NEXT RUN DOES
AND GUIDANCE POPS LESS THAN 30% THRU MON NIGHT. MODELS DO AGREE WITH
WARMER TEMPS AT LEAST AROUND 80 FROM MEMORIAL DAY THRU SAT. MOST OF
CENTRAL IL HAS NOT BEEN IN THE 80S SINCE THE 5 DAY MINI HEAT WAVE
FROM APR 15-19.

EXTENDED MODELS NOW SHOWING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION FROM WED THRU
FRI...A DAY SOONER THAN YESTERDAYS RUNS AS A BIT STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL TROF DIGS INTO THE NATIONS HEARTLANDS AND EVOLVES INTO A WEAK
CUTOFF LOW. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND WHERE A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. JUST SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL IL WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WILL HAVE IT
DRY AND WARM ON SAT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
NATIONS HEARTLAND.

...PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES...

SPI AB 050/077 055/082 058 07000
PIA AB 048/076 055/080 058 07001
DEC AB 050/077 054/081 057 07000
CMI AB 048/075 052/081 055 07000
MTO AB 052/076 053/081 056 07200
LWV BB 056/077 055/082 058 07400

.ILX...NONE.

KH

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-251730-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1127 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2002

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING WITH IT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO THIS EVENING.

AUTEN