Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Lincoln, IL

May 11, 2002Marshall County, Illinois

NWS Lincoln, IL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 11, 2002, 5:51 PM CDT for Marshall County, Illinois. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 11, 2002, 5:51 PM CDT (22:51 UTC)
Expired: May 11, 2002, 6:30 PM CDT
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS Lincoln, IL
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Marshall County, IL

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1467 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 103 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 171 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KILX 112251 CCA
SVRSPI
ILC123-112330-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING...CORRECTED STORM MOTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
546 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  MARSHALL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 546 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LACON...MOVING EAST
  AT 40 MPH. 1 INCH HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  VARNA
  TOLUCA

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DAMAGING HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. TAKE
SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR ANY STORM DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL ESDA...OR THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE. STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS.

LAT...LON 4104 8960 4093 8944 4094 8894 4108 8911

CHURCHILL
NNNN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 11, 2:22 PM CDT, 3 hours 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 11, 2:22 PM CDT, 3 hours 29 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
222 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2002

PLENTY FORECAST CONCERNS...WILL FOCUS ON DANGEROUS HEAVY RAINFALL
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL REST OF TODAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST U.S. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS EAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI.
SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS WESTERN PLAINS STATES. LATEST 1815Z W/V IMAGE
PLACES S/W ACROSS NORTHWEST IL...OTHER SW/S WERE ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES...AND A STRONG S/W ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA/SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. LATEST 1815Z IR-IMAGE PLACES PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS MS
VALLEY.  LATEST 1813Z KILX RADAR DEMONSTRATES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A DEC-CMI LINE. ADDITIONAL HVY PCPN WAS ACROSS
FULTON COUNTY. LATEST 1808Z KDVN RADAR INDICATES ADDITIONAL PCPN
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST.

MODELS ARE AGAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED. OTHER
THAN QPF PREFER MAINLY ETA OVERALL SOLUTION.

H50 HIGH IS ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO WITH H50 TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS
UPPER MIDWEST AND ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS ROCKIES BY 12Z SUN.  TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS MS VALLEY AND RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS MOUNTAIN WEST BY
12Z MON.  H50 TROUGH MOVES EAST AND IS FROM GREAT LAKES SOUTH TO
GULF OF MEXICO AND RIDGE ACROSS ROCKIES BY 00Z TUE. SURFACE LOW
MOVES OUT OF PLAINS NORTHEAST AND IS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY 15Z
SUN...AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO BY 00Z MON. SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS STATE ON SUNDAY. A S/W MOVES OUT OF PLAINS STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT TOWARDS MS VALLEY MONDAY MORNING THIS WILL CAUSE
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN SOUTHEAST CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.
ETA PLACES CWA IN FAVORABLE REGION OF 110KT 300MB JET UNTIL 18Z MON.
T/H CROSS SECTIONS PLACE HIGH RH AT ALL LEVELS THROUGH 12Z SUN. SOME
DRIER MID LEVEL RH ONLY 50-60 PERCENT FROM 12ZSUN-00Z MON. THEN A
RETURN OF HIGH 80+ PERCENT MID LEVEL RH BETWEEN 00Z MON-12Z MON.
MODEL  SOUNDINGS INCREASE INSTABILITY AND PW/S ACROSS CWA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.  PW/S INCREASE TO 1.5-2.0...LI/S TO -4 TO -8 BY 06Z SUN
ACROSS CWA. ETA PLACES CWA WITH SOME DECENT 250MB DIVERGENCE THROUGH
18Z SUN. ETA 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE INDICATES FAIRLY DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND COND PRES DEF THROUGH 18Z SUN ACROSS CWA AND
MAINTAINS HIGH CON PRES DEF ACROSS SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z MON.  WITH
FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING...FAIRLY LOW FFG AND HIGH PROBABILITY OF
PCPN ELECTING TO EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA FOR
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH PCPN ALREADY GOING ON...WILL GO PERIODS OF
CENTRAL AND SCATTERED SOUTHEAST.

EXTENDED LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER
MORE RAIN AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY WITH CONVECTION AND WARM FRONT
NEARBY.

...PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES...

SPI TB 060/067 045/063 044 13++5
PIA TB 057/064 043/063 043 13++4
DEC TB 059/068 045/063 044 13++5
CMI TB 056/068 044/062 042 13++6
MTO TB 060/070 046/063 044 13++6
LWV TE 063/076 050/063 045 135++

.ILX...FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT SOUTHEAST.

EH

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 11, 12:46 PM CDT, 5 hours 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
1246 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1204 PM    MANITO                    IL   FLOOD
05/11/02   MASON                          STANDING WATER ON MOST
                                          NON-BLACKTOP ROADS. 1.8
                                          INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR.
                                          REPORTED BY SHERIFF AND
                                          SWOP OBSERVER.

1225 PM    GALESBURG                 IL   FLOOD
05/11/02   KNOX                           MAIN STREET FLOODED. WATER
                                          IN BASEMENTS. REPORTED BY
                                          SHERIFF.

1100 AM    BANNER                    IL   FLOOD
05/11/02   FULTON                         BOTTOM OF BANNER HILL
                                          (US-24 AT IL-9) WASHED
                                          AWAY. REPORTED BY SHERIFF.

1215 PM    FARMINGTON                IL   FLOOD
05/11/02   FULTON                         BASEMENT AND STREET
                                          FLOODING. REPORTED BY
                                          SHERIFF.

1100 AM    SMITHFIELD                IL   FLOOD
05/11/02   FULTON                         IL-95 FLOODED DUE TO HEAVY
                                          RAIN. REPORTED BY SHERIFF.

1145 AM    WYOMING                   IL   FLOOD
05/11/02   STARK                          SOME STREET FLOODING.
                                          RAINFALL 1.12 INCHES SO
                                          FAR. REPORTED BY SWOP
                                          OBSERVER.

GEELHART

Local storm report, May 11, 4:38 PM CDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
438 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0410 PM    1 W BARTONVILLE           IL   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/11/02   PEORIA                         REPORTED BY PEORIA COUNTY
                                          ESDA

0410 PM    PEORIA                    IL   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/11/02   PEORIA                         REPORTED BY PEORIA COUNTY
                                          ESDA

0430 PM    1 N. ST AUGUSTINE         IL   FLASH FLOOD
05/11/02   KNOX                           ROUTE 116 AND ROUTE 41
                                          VIADUCT 3 FEET UNDER
                                          WATER...IMPASSIBLE.

BK

The office that day

Everything else NWS Lincoln, IL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 11, 11:53 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ILX	Fulton, Knox, McLean, Marshall, Mason, Peoria and 3 more	4 hr
May 11, 3:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Fulton, Knox	46 min
May 11, 4:01 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ILX	Fulton, Knox, McLean, Marshall, Mason, Peoria and 3 more	6 hr
May 11, 4:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Fulton, Knox, Peoria, Tazewell, Woodford	44 min
May 11, 5:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Marshall	42 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.