Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
210 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2002

FCST CONCERNS WL CENTER ARND ENDING OF THUNDER AND HVY RAIN THREAT
TONIGHT...THEN WX PATTERN BECOMES MORE BENIGN INTO THE WEEKEND...
WITH THE CONCERNS SHIFTING TO TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE SFC LOW AND ASSOC FNTL BOUNDARY AS
IT TRACKS EAST TOWARD OHIO TONIGHT. AVN THE QUICKEST...WITH THE NGM
THE SLOWEST. CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM WITH AVN LIKELY THE CAUSE
OF THE QUICKER MOVEMENT. WL LEAN TOWARD THE ETA SOLUTION...WHICH
PLACES THE SFC LOW NR IND AT 06Z TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING
SWWRD INTO SRN IL THRU NWRN AK. WITH THIS ANTICIPATED MOVEMENT
...PLAN TO BE ABLE TO CONT ENDING WORDING FOR PCPN/FLOOD THREAT
TONIGHT.

SOME QUESTION AS TO THE EXTENT OF THE WRAP ARND CLOUDINESS TMRW.
BASED ON ETA BUFKIT TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS...CLOUDS WL DECREASE ACRS
THE REGION DURING THE AFT WEST-EAST. WL BE OPTIMISTIC FOR SOME AFT
SUN. WITH CLR SKIES AND SFC HI PRES BUILDING IN THU NIGHT...TEMPS WL
DROP INTO 30S BY FRI MORN. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT WL LEAN TOWARD COOLER ETA 2M TEMPS FRI MORN WITH
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. A QUICK GLANCE AT RECORD LOWS (NR 30)
SUGGEST WE SHLD REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABV RECORD LOWS.

NRN STREAM S/WV MOVES ACRS SRN CANADA TOWARD THE UPR GREAT LAKES SAT
EVE. AVN TIMES THE ASSOC COLD FNT THRU IL SAT EVE. SRN STREAM
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...LIFTING
THE FNT BACK NORTH INTO IL LATER SUN...WITH CONT PCPN THREAT THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.

...PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES...

SPI BU 047/058 036/065 045 818-0
PIA BU 044/057 034/064 045 817-0
DEC BU 048/057 035/064 044 818-0
CMI EU 047/056 034/063 043 81810
MTO EU 052/058 035/064 045 81+20
LWV EU 055/061 035/065 046 81+20

.ILX...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT
       ILZ027>031-036>038-040>051-053

PLAHMER

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-011800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1110 AM CDT WED MAY 1 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH TONIGHT...

A DANGEROUS SITUATION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...WILL TRACK ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. A WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY
AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. OTHER STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-72 FROM SPRINGFIELD TO CHAMPAIGN. ISOLATED TORNADOS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

FRIEDERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
143 PM CDT WED MAY 1 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0135 PM    3 S RUSHVILLE             IL   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/01/02   SCHUYLER                       REPORT AT SCHUY RUSH
                                          LAKE...3 SOUTH OF
                                          RUSHVILLE. FROM COUNTY
                                          SHERIFF.