Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
343 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2002

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR RUSSELL & BARTON COUNTIES UNTIL 9PM...

MAIN FCST CONCERN WILL BE WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...AND
ONCE AGAIN WITH TIMING OF BETTER PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT EXTNDED
ACROSS THE AREA.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS EMBEDDED SW OVER NORTHERN AZ AT 17Z...WITH CURRENT
TRACK PLACING IT OVER N CENTRAL KS AROUND 00Z...AVN SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THIS WAVE A TAD BETTER AND WILL

TONIGHT-MON NIGHT
ETA/AVN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFTING OF MSTR OVER
INVERSION FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TONIGHT...BUT BOTH MODELS SUGGEST
HIGHER QPF VALUES N AND S OF CWA WITH BROAD BRUSH SWATH ACROSS OUR
CWA. LIS ABOVE INVERSION ARE IN THE RANGE OF -2 TO -6 WITH DECENT
ELEVATED CAPE VALUES. SHEAR IS NOT THE GREATEST FOR SUPPORTING ROTATIONAL
UPDRAFTS WHICH COULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL SOME. BEST 850MB-250MB
DIFFERENTIAL DIV REMAINS S AND N OF CWA AS WELL...WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT FOR S CENTRAL/SE CWA LATE TONIGHT. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS
GOING. IT APPEARS THAT MORE THAN ONE MCS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING
THEN TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT. PINPOINTING INITIATION POINTS WILL BE
TRICKY BUT MCS COMPLEXES SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AS THEY MIGRATE
EAST...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS OUR AREA.
HEADING INTO MONDAY SFC LOW WILL REMAIN IN W KS PLACING US IN WARM
SECTOR WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING. FAIRLY HEATHLY CAP SHOULD SUPPRESS
T-STORM CHANCES DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER SNDINGS SHOW DEEP ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER ERODING CAP IN WESTERN CWA...THUS FIRING CONVECTION ON
DRY LINE BNDY. SO WILL ADD SLIGHT POPS FOR THAT AREA FOR LATE
AFTERNOON AND KEEP OTHER AREAS LOWER WITH CAP HOLDING. HOW MUCH
WARMING WILL DEPEND ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH MSTR FALLS ACROSS THE AREA
SUN NGHT. WILL KEEP GOING NUMBERS DUE TO UNCERTAINLY ON PRECIP AREAS.
WILL INCREASE POPS MONDAY NGHT AS ELEVATED CONVECTION CHANCES APPEAR
PRETTY GOOD WITH AMPLE 850MB MSTR CONVERGENCE NEAR KS/OK
BORDER...ALONG WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN 305K-310K LAYER.

TUES-WED
COULD BE ANOTHER REPEAT PERFORMANCE ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO
MONDAY...WITH DRYLINE STILL CAMPING OUT IN WESTERN CWA AND CAP
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS GOING
DURING THE DAY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. INCREASING LOW JET FOR TUES
NIGHT COULD GET ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING AGAIN...MAINLY FOR SE CWA
DUE TO DEEPER MSTR AXIS IN THAT AREA. EAST COAST MID-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST...THUS ALLOWING SFC CLD FRNT BNDY TO MOVE
SE ACROSS CWA. BEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE AHEAD OF CLD FRNT IN SE
CWA...AND GOING FCST HAS THIS TREND SO NO CHANGES EXPECTED. TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO CLD FRNT TIMING.

EXTENDED:THUR-SUN
MRF/ECM IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SFC HIGH KEEPING THINGS DRY AND COOLER
FOR THUR...WITH CANADIAN AIRMASS CHARACTERISTICS. STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
MOVES N INTO AREA FROM OK. WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW AND WATCH NEXT
COUPLE MODEL RUNS FOR MORE CONFIDENCE. BOTH MODELS SHOW BNDY MOVING
N ACROSS CWA DURING THE DAY ON FRI...WITH WARMER 850MB THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDING BACK INTO AREA. WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A BIT FOR FRI. MRF SHOWS
WELL DEFINED SFC WARM FRONT BNDY ALONG KS/NE BORDER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THUS PLACING US IN WARM SECTOR. THINGS APPEAR TO BE
CAPPED DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT DEEP MSTR/WAA ADVECTION WILL
BE QUITE STRONG SO GOING 20 POPS SEEMS GOOD FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED
CONVECTION. CHANCES LOOKING SOMEWHAT BETTER FOR SAT ALONG DRYLINE IF
CAP CAN BE OVERCOME IN CENTRAL KS...WITH DEEP MSTR REMAINING IN
PLACE AND SW EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. GOING TEMPS SEEM GOOD FOR
NOW SO NO CHANGES THERE. SUNDAY WILL BE TRICKY PRECIP/TEMP WISE AS
BNDY PROGD ACROSS CENTRAL KS BY 12Z. WILL CARRY SOME POPS IN
CNTRL/SE CWA FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS LOOK AT TIMING OF THINGS
FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THIS. WILL HAVE TEMPS WARMEST IN SE AND TAPER
DOWN TOWARDS NW CWA.

FCSTID =15/JAKUB
ICT   65  89  65  92 /  50  20  40  20
HUT   65  89  65  92 /  50  20  40  20
EWK   65  89  65  92 /  50  20  40  20
EQA   65  87  65  91 /  50  10  40  20
WLD   65  87  65  91 /  50  10  40  20
RSL   62  92  59  93 /  50  20  40  20
GBD   62  92  59  93 /  50  20  40  20
SLN   63  90  62  92 /  50  20  40  20
MPR   63  90  62  92 /  50  20  40  20
CFV   65  85  65  87 /  50  20  40  20
CNU   65  85  65  87 /  50  20  40  20
K88   65  85  65  87 /  50  20  40  20
.ICT...NONE.