Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
335 AM CDT SAT APR 27 2002

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS INVOLVE THE EFFECTS FROM THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROF...THAT WILL LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD OUT OF NM/CO ACROSS KS TODAY.
MODELS WERE RATHER SIMILAR WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF THIS UPR TROF AS
IT PASSES OVER NE/KS TODAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED. USING AN ETA/AVN
BLEND OF SFC LOW TRACK...AND LEANING WITH THE WARMER ETA 2 M TEMPS
BEHIND THE DRYLINE GIVEN MODEL FCST 1000/850 THICKNESSES AND PROGGED
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.

TODAY: NO BIG CHANGES FM EARLIER THINKING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO S-CNTRL/SERN KS FM OK
DURING THE EARLY AM HRS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPR JET COUPLING AND
CONTINUED 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION. THE ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD
SHIFT EAST INTO MO BY 17Z...ALONG WITH THE AREA OF UPR DIVERGENCE AND
THETA-E ADVECTION. STILL QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER WE WILL HAVE
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. ETA
SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
PSG...WITH MID LVL DRY SLOT NOSING INTO RGN. WEAK CAP/MODERATE
INSTABILITY PROGGED GIVEN TEMPS CAN REACH NR 80 AND DWPTS LWR
60S...AND THAT THE AIRMASS CAN RECOVER FM MORNING CONVECTION. WL
KEEP A 20/30 POP IN SERN KS THIS PM AND MENTION PSBL SVR GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WL ALSO KEEP A 20 POP FOR CNTRL
KS WITH THAT AREA UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LVL COLD POOL TRACK WITH LIS
PROGGED TO MINUS 2...HOWEVER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE DRYLINE
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LACKING. WL OPT TO EXPAND
WIND ADVSRY TO CNTRL KS AND THE FLINT HILLS...AS THE MODELS APPEAR
TO BE UNDER-PLAYING WIND SPEEDS BEHIND DRYLINE WITH DEEP MIXING
PROGGED TO 650 MB AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY: SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD INTO THE FCST AREA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS EVE WITH 3 HRLY PRES RISES OF 5-6 MB PROGGED
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. THINK WINDS MAY STAY UP MOST OF NIGHT
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT A FOG MENTION ATTM. BOOSTED MINS UP ONLY
SLIGHTLY. LOW LVL THICKNESSES ON ETA WOULD SUGGEST 70-75 FOR MAXES
SUNDAY GIVEN FULL SUNSHINE.

SUN NIGHT: WEAK SERLY RETURN FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION PROGGED ATTM...SO WL STAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND
LOWS UPR 40S/LWR 50S.

MED RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
HANDLING OF THE UPR LOW OVER S-CNTRL CANADA AND THE UPR LOW OVER THE
ERN PACIFIC MON-WED. LOW LVL MOISTURE WL LIKELY RETURN TO THE FCST
AREA MON-WED WITH ALL MODELS HINTING THAT A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP INTO
KS SOMETIME TUES INTO WED. NOT CERTAIN ITS WORTH BLANKETING
TUES-THURS WITH SMALL POPS ATTM GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...AND RUNNING SHORT ON TIME AS A RESULT OF CURRENT APPROACHING
SYSTEM.

FCSTID = 9
ICT   82  50  75  53 /  60   5   0  10
HUT   81  48  74  51 /  40   5   0  10
EWK   80  48  73  51 /  60   5   0  10
EQA   80  49  74  52 /  60   5   0  10
WLD   83  51  75  54 /  60   5   0  10
RSL   80  43  72  48 /  30  10   0  10
GBD   81  46  74  51 /  30  10   0  10
SLN   78  46  71  49 /  50  10   0  10
MPR   80  48  73  51 /  50  10   0  10
CFV   80  51  75  54 /  70   5   0  10
CNU   79  50  75  53 /  70   5   0  10
K88   79  49  74  53 /  70   5   0  10

.ICT...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
FLINT HILLS ZONES
KSZ032>033...KSZ047>053...KSZ067>070...KSZ082>083...KSZ091>094...KSZ0
98.