Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
345 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2002

MAIN FCST PROBLEMS: POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SVR STORMS THIS EVENING,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY AND BEYOND. SECONDARY CONCERNS ARE
TEMPERATURES.

TONIGHT: ISOLD SFC-BASED CONVECTION MAY FORM JUST E OF DRYLINE
FEATURE OVER CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MLCAPES OF
1500-2000 ARE PROGGED GIVEN MID-UPR 80S WITH LWR 60S DWPTS. CIN
VALUES WL RUN AROUND -25 TO -75 SO IT WL TAKE DECENT CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLING GIVEN LACK OF UPR SUPPORT. VEERING WINDS IN THE
INFLOW LAYER AND 35-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST
SUPERCELLS IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME. WL KEEP POPS IN THE 30 PCT
RANGE E OF DRYLINE, MNLY FOR EARLY THIS EVE. OTHERWISE LATER
TONIGHT, SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM CNTRL INTO S-CNTRL KS. CURRENT FCST
LOWS LOOK OKAY WITH COOLER READINGS IN CNTRL SXNS GIVEN DRIER AIR
INTRUSION BEHIND FRONT. FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OVER SERN KS BY EARLY
MORNING PER AVN/ETA.

WEDNESDAY: LOOKS WARM AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK N OF FCST AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH FALLING PRESSURES IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ETA/NGM
THICKNESSES FAVOR 85 TO 90 AREAWIDE GIVEN NR FULL SUNSHINE AND
HEALTHY MIXING. EXPECTING LOW LVL MOISTURE TO SURGE BACK NWWRD WITH
DWPTS IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S CREATING MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WITH LITTLE CAPPING. SOME CONCERN EXISTS THAT ISOLD CONVECTION COULD
FORM NR DRYLINE IN CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS, OR NEAR WARM FRONT, BUT WITHOUT
ANY UPR SUPPORT ATTM, WL LEAVE OUT POPS.

WED NIGHT: MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO BE FAIRLY STEEP AT 7.5
TO 8.5 C/KM. UPR DIFFLUENCE MAY INCREASE GIVEN SPLIT UPR JET
STRUCTURE OVER THE PLAINS, BUT OTHERWISE A GENERAL ABSENCE OF
THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE MODEL DATA. SO 20 PCT CHC OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION SEEMS WARRANTED. OTHERWISE, MIN TEMPS LIKELY TO BE VERY
MILD IN UPR 50S TO MID 60S WITH BREEZY S WINDS COMPLEMENT OF LOW
LEVEL JET.

THURSDAY: DRYLINE PROGGED TO MOVE INTO ERN KS. ETA IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE SURGING COLD FRONT SEWD INTO CNTRL KS LATE IN DAY.
HOWEVER BOTH MODELS INDICATE LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING
DRAMATICALLY INTO THE FRONT OVER SRN KS THURSDAY EVENING. WITH LOWER
TO MID 60S S OF FRONT, WL CARRY 50-60 PCT CHC TSTORMS WITH HIEST POPS
IN S-CNTRL/SERN KS. WL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SVR POTENTIAL THURS EVE
GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY/WIND SHEAR SETUP.

FRI-TUES PERIOD: MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENCES THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE PATTERN. ECMWF AND CANADIAN OFFER A STRONGER CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...THEN LIFTING OUT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. THE 00Z MRF/UKMET SHOWED MORE OF A WEAKER...
OPEN UPR TROF OVER THE SWRN U.S.. AS A RESULT, THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
COLD FRONT STALLED OVER SRN KS SATURDAY, THEN QUICKLY LIFTS IT N
INTO NEBRASKA SUNDAY WITH A SVR WX SIGNAL FOR SUNDAY FOR THE CNTRL
PLAINS. THE MRF KEEPS PUSHING THE FRONT SWD OUT OF KS FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT, ENDING PCPN CHANCES FOR SAT-SUN. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
FRONT...DEEP MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO PUSH THE BNDRY EVEN FARTHER S, MRF IDEA IS
PLAUSIBLE. THUS, THINKING BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WL BE THURS NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WITH THE INITIAL FROPA...THEN BACK TO SLT CHANCES SAT-MON.
WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS NEXT UPR TROF PLAYS OUT. WOULD LIKE TO SEE
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS BEFORE GOING HIER RAIN PROBABILITIES
BEYOND DAYS 4. NO PLANS TO ADJUST TEMPS EITHER. WL STAY WITH MNLY
60S FOR NOW THIS WEEKEND WHICH IS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD, THEN
MODIFICATION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL OF THIS IS TENTATIVE AND WL MAKE
FINAL ADJUSTMENTS AFTER ASSESSING SURROUNDING OFFICES INTENTIONS.

FCSTID = 9
ICT   54  86  63  85 /  30  10  20  30
HUT   52  86  61  84 /  20  10  20  30
EWK   54  85  62  84 /  30  10  20  30
EQA   55  86  63  85 /  30  10  20  30
WLD   55  89  64  87 /  20  10  20  30
RSL   47  85  58  80 /  10  10  20  20
GBD   48  86  60  81 /  20  10  20  30
SLN   50  84  60  81 /  30  10  20  30
MPR   54  85  61  83 /  30  10  20  30
CFV   62  87  65  88 /  20  10  20  30
CNU   59  85  64  86 /  30  10  20  30
K88   58  84  63  86 /  30  10  20  30

.ICT...
KS...WIND ADVISORY EXTENDED UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL KS
ZONES KSZ032>033...KSZ047>048...KSZ050.

WIND ADVISORY EXTENDED UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ZONES
KSZ049...KSZ051>053...KSZ067>072...KSZ082>083...KSZ091>096...KSZ098>1
00.

KSZ033-048>053-170500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1018 PM CDT TUE APR 16 2002

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 100 HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
LINCOLN...ELLSWORTH...RICE...AND SALINE COUNTIES OF CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED IN THESE LOCATIONS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MCPHERSON...
MARION AND CHASE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

CARUSO