Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
300 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2002

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

ETA AND AVN SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN CO
AND WESTERN KS. THE MAIN PROBLEM IS WHERE THIS MCS WILL GO. THINK
THAT THE MAIN FRONT IS STILL ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AT HILL CITY. CORFIDI VECTORS
SUGGEST A MORE EASTERLY PROPAGATION TO THE MCS. GIVEN THIS WILL GO A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ETAS MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION OF THE MCS TRACK
AND HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA FOR TONIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS AND HAVE
LIKELY POPS THERE. WILL ALSO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR THE ENTIRE CWA AND LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF IT NEEDS TO BE
EXTENDED INTO THE THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS FORECASTING PRECIPITAL
WATERS GREATER THE 1.5 AND WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT COULD SEE SOME
TOTALS 2 TO 3 INCHES AGAIN. I ALSO INCLUDED SOUTHEAST KANSAS IN THE
WATCH. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MORE PRECIP TO CAUSE PROBLEMS AFTER THE
HEAVY RAINS RECEIVED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST
FOR THURSDAY MORNING OF A SLIGHT CHANCE IN CENTRAL KS AND 50 POPS IN
SOUTHERN ZONES LOOKS GOOD AND DID NOT CHANGE.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES SOUTH
AND SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES IN. WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE A LOT OF JUNE SUNSHINE TO WARM
THINGS UP.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE DURING THE WEEKEND. LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. APPEARS AS THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
STATE. WILL KEEP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY WITH TEMPS MODERATING.

PRELIM CCF...

ICT   66  81  56  81  58 /  60  50   -   0
RSL   59  78  52  80  54 /  50  20   0   0
SLN   62  79  55  80  56 /  40  20   0   0
CNU   67  81  57  79  58 /  50  40   -   0

.ICT...
KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 600 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ENTIRE CWA.

WOLTERS

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-130415-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
ISSUED BY NWS TOPEKA KS
1150 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND
OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL...AND ESPECIALLY
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS....BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EXTREME INSTABILITY AND
FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILES...A FEW TORNADOES COULD ALSO
OCCUR...WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALONG WITH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

A COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO AT MID DAY...IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXPECTED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE VERY
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS KANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

CONSEQUENTLY...STORM SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTIVATION
WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND OVERNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN WICHITA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA, KANSAS
318 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1227 AM    1 NW ALAMEDA              KS   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
06/12/02   KINGMAN                        TRAINED AGTAP SPOTTER
                                          REPORTED

0126 AM    7 E MOUNDRIDGE            KS   FLASH FLOOD
06/12/02   MCPHERSON                      LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
                                          THAT ONE PERSON WAS
                                          STRANDED ON THE ROAD AT
                                          ARROWHEAD AND 30TH AVENUE.

0145 AM    INDEPENDENCE              KS   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
06/12/02   MONTGOMERY                     LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED

0156 AM    OXFORD                    KS   58 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
06/12/02   SUMNER                         LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED

0500 AM    1 NW HUTCHINSON           KS   WIND DAMAGE
06/12/02   RENO                           EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
                                          REPORTED THAT SEVERAL TREE
                                          LIMBS WERE DOWNED.

0510 AM    HUTCHINSON                KS   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
06/12/02   RENO                           LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
                                          THAT 6 INCH TREE LIMBS WERE
                                          DOWNED.

0647 AM    WINFIELD                  KS   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
06/12/02   COWLEY                         REPORTED BY NWS ASOS.

0650 AM    ARKANSAS CITY             KS   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/12/02   COWLEY                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

0657 AM    ARKANSAS CITY             KS   .75 INCH HAIL
06/12/02   COWLEY                         REPORTED BY TRAINED AGTAP
                                          SPOTTER

CH