Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
300 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2002

TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PCPN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE MAIN
CHALLENGE.

WARM FRONT MOVING NWD ACRS THE RGN KICKING OFF SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FM
NW TO CNTRL WI THIS AFTN.  AIRMASS BECOMING INSTABLE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND AFTN TEMPS REACHED AROUND 90 MANY LOCATIONS.  ISOLD SHRA
AND TSRA OVER THE CWA THIS AFTN APPEARS TO BE DIURNAL AND ANTICIPATE A
DIMINISHING TREND BY EARLY EVENING.  WILL ADD ISOLD EARLY WORDING THEN
CHC POPS LATE FOR THE FIRST PD.  LATEST MODEL TRENDS KEEP CONVECTION
FROM THE NRN PLAINS FROM DRIFTING INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE CWA UNTIL
LATE TNT...ASSUMING CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER.  CONVECTION NEAR DLH AND
NEAR WMFNT MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NC WI LATER THIS EVENING.

COLD FRONT SPEED A TAD SLOWER AND SFC SLOW IS PROGGED TO BE WEAKER AND
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH.  CLOUDS FROM ANTICIPATED CONVECTION TO THE WEST
MAY DRIFT OVER THE CWA MONDAY TO REDUCE THREAT OF SVR WX ON MOND. THIS
EVENINGS WAA PCPN EVENT...MUCH OF CWA MAY SEE A BREAK IN PCPN TIL
THE CDFNT.  MODEL END TIMING CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT MORNING MENTION
OVER MAINLY THE EAST TUE.

MDM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT LAST FEW RUNS AS FLOW TOWARD END
OF THE WEEK TRANSISTIONING TO A ZONAL FLOW.  WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHGS IN
LATER PDS AS RESULT.

.GRB...NONE.

HELMAN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-112030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO SPREAD OVER WISCONSIN.  DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING.  MEANWHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MINNESOTA.  SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WISCONSIN...REACHING THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE THREATS
FOR MONDAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

HELMAN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-112030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT SUN AUG 11 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR TO SPREAD OVER WISCONSIN.  DAYTIME
HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
WISCONSIN.  ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING.  MEANWHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MINNESOTA.  SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WISCONSIN...REACHING THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT TONIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE THREATS
FOR MONDAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY.

HELMAN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB