Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2002

TIME SHORT DUE TO ONGOING SVR WX. WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
2/3RDS OF GRB CWA...AND SUPERCELL STORMS CURRENTLY MOVG THROUGH WSTRN
MARATHON CO.

EXPECT TSTMS TO BE AN EVG FEATURE...WITH SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT EAST OF
THE FA BY 06Z. MUCH COOLER AIR FLOODS INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND
LINGERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A GENERAL LULL IN THE PRECIP IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUES...ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME SCT SHRA ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE FA
TUES AFT/EVG. THE MODELS AGREE ON SETTLING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL
IL ON TUES/TUES NGT...SO MCS DEVELOPMENT LATE TUES NIGHT SHOULD BE
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. WILL KEEP A CHC POP GOING FOR
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR LT TUES NGT. CHC POPS CONTINUE WEDS INTO
THURS...UNTIL UPPER TROF SWINGS THROUGH. SCT SHRA MAY MIX WITH SHSN
THURS AFT/EVG ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGES TO EFP.

.GRB...NONE.

KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-061645-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CDT MON MAY 6 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A GREEN BAY TO
WISCONSIN RAPIDS LINE.

A WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

SPOTTER GROUPS IN SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED BY NOON. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN
BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WHENEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
OR IMMINENT.

RDM
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-061900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1100 AM CDT MON MAY 6 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
A MARSHFIELD TO WAUPACA TO CHILTON LINE.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
CLEARING SKIES WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 70S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...
COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL GENERATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY. THE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BETWEEN 2:00 PM AND 3:00 PM...THEN TRACK EAST THROUGH CENTRAL
AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTER GROUPS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY MAY
BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST
WHENEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
354 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0351 PM    ROZELLVILLE               WI   .88 INCH HAIL
05/06/02   MARATHON

JKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
403 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0359 PM    9 WSW MOSINEE             WI   1 INCH HAIL
05/06/02   MARATHON

JKL