Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
350 PM CDT TUE JUL 9 2002

MAIN CONCERN IS PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THU. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
BLEND OF THE ETA AND AVN EARLY TENDING TOWARD THE AVN LATER IN THE
FORECAST

THE FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO ROLE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CWA.  EXPECT THAT THIS COMPLEX WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NW IA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.  OTHER
SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NE SD AS THE UPR LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...ATTM...IT APPEARS ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE TROF
EXTENDED FROM EXTREME NE SD TO KYKN AT 09Z.  EXPECT THAT THE TROF WL
BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE SD STATELINE LATER THIS MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS WL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROF
WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND UPPER DYNAMICS ARE LOCATED.
EXPECT THAT SOME BREAKS WL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING BEHIND THIS
COMPLEX AHEAD OF THE TROF.  AS THE UPPER LOW...AND COLD CORE...MOVES
OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...LIKELY IN THE BKX OR MML AREA.  THIS
CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SIGNIFICANT
MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND WITH SUN...CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG CAN BE
EXPECTED.  THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON ACRS SW MN AND NW IA.  HOWEVER...IF TEMPS CAN RISE TO 80
OR HIGHER...THEN SEVERE THREAT INCREASES DUE TO INCREASED
INSTABILITY.  WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING AND SFC BOUNDARY
HAVE GONE LIKELY FROM I-29 EAST WITH A CHANCE AS FAR WEST AS MHE AND
DE SMET.  TEMPS WL BE TRICKY DUE TO CLOUDS.  WENT WAREMST SW WHERE
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST SUN AND NW FLOW WL HELP IN MIXING
TO 850 MB.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES SE OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. SCT SHRA AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END ACRS NW IA BY MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE
MOVES SE.  THEN THE PROBLEM TURNS TO LOW CLOUDS.  EAST OF THE
TROF... MOISTURE WILL BE LIFTED BELOW THE INVERSION AND WITH THE
COOLING AIR MASS LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED.  BOTH THE AVN AND
ETA SHOW THE INVERTED TROF SLOWLY MOVING TO THE WEST BEGINNING
TONIGHT.  THIS WILL MEAN A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE WRN CWA
TONIGHT.  WITH THE LOW CLOUDS...TEMPS WL REMAIN UP AS THE POOLING
MSTR WL HELP DEW POINTS STAY AROUND 60F.  FARTHER WEST...WHERE FEWER
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED...TEMPS WL FALL INTO THE 50S.

ON THU...THE MAY BE SOME LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON SHRA IN NW
IA IF ANY SUN CAN BREAK THROUGH TO DESTABILIZE WHICH IS UNLIKELY.
OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACRS MOST OF THE CWA ON
THU...ONLY SLOWLY BREAKING UP WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING.  THIS...
COMBINED WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 10 C...WL KEEP TEMPS IN THE L-M70S
OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.  ONLY SC SD MAY RISE TO 80 WITH MORE
SUN EXPECTED.  EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO REMAIN ON THU.  WITH SFC RDG
OVER THE AREA...IT IS EVEN PSBL THAT FOG MAY DEVELOP ACRS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA.  WL NOT ADD TO ZONES AT THIS TIME AND LET SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS EXAMINE POSSIBILITY.  TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY FALL BELOW 60 OVER
MOST OF THE CWA.  ON FRI...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WL BE THE
START TO A SLOW WARMING TREND.  TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE M70S IN NW
IA...WHERE NE FLOW WL PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY...TO THE M80S IN SC SD.

.FSD...NONE

SCHUMACHER