Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
310 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2002

HAVE FELT WE HAVE BETTER STRM POTENTL THAN WE WERE ERYR CARRYNG
SINCE NOTED THAT ETA AND MESOETA AT 12Z DID A GOOD JOB OF BACKNG LOW
LVL FLO THIS AFTN. THIS ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE COMNG ABOUT DESPITE
WEAKR TREND OF 18Z MESOETA. THIS CUD LEAD TO SIGNIFCNT SVR STRM
DVLPMNT AS PER RECENT SPC MCD. WILL GO SCT TSTMS PSBLY SVR MOST OF
FCST AREA JUST LEAVNG SLGT CHC TSTMS FAR NW INCLUDG HON. THREAT OF
STRMS SHUD CONT MOST OF TNGT SERN HALF OF AREA BUT WILL STILL CUT
OFF BY MRNG....GOING PTCLDY TO MOSUNNY AND LESS HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR WED. AS SHRTWV DIGS TO E AND WE GET NRLY FLOW...WITH RDG VRY
SLWLY BLDG BACK INTO NRN PLAINS...LOOKS LIKE GNLY DRY SVRL DAYS AS
WE CURNTLY HAVE GOING. WILL KEEP THIS AND THO BY LAST DAY OF
PD...NEXT TUE...THERE CUD BE A THRAET FROM SFC BOUNDRY MOVG INTO
AREA...TEMPS WILL BE VRY WRM AND UPR DYNAMICS DONT LOOK THAT
GREAT...SO WILL CONT DAY 7 W/O TSTMS FOR NOW. IN OTHER WORDS THE
FCST WILL BE PCPN FREE AFTR TNGT. FWC TEMP GUIDNCE AND ITS GREATER
DIURNAL RANGE LOOKS BETTER THAN MAV.

.FSD...NONE
WILLIAMS

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2002

*** THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
PERTAINS ONLY TO CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. ***

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AS THIS FRONT MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
IT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS EVENING OVER
PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST
IOWA AND EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BEHIND THE FRONT COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...ENDING
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

SDZ038>040-052>056-260500-
BEADLE-KINGSBURY-BROOKINGS-JERAULD-SANBORN-MINER-LAKE-MOODY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HURON...BROOKINGS...
1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2002

* FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT:
  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
  SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED IN THIS AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER:
  NONE.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION:
  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SDZ050-057>067-MNZ071-072-080-089-097-098-IAZ001-260500-
LINCOLN-LYON-PIPESTONE-MURRAY-BRULE-AURORA-DAVISON-HANSON-MCCOOK-
MINNEHAHA-ROCK-NOBLES-GREGORY-CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-HUTCHINSON-TURNER-
LINCOLN-LYON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PIPESTONE...SLAYTON...CHAMBERLAIN...MITCHELL...
SIOUX FALLS...LUVERNE...WORTHINGTON...ROCK RAPIDS...
1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2002

* FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT:
  THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
  THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD BE SEVERE EARLY THIS
  EVENING.

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER:
  SEVERE WINDS...GUSTS EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN 58 MPH.
  LARGE HAIL...DIME SIZE OR LARGER.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION:
  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 500 PM CDT.

SDZ068>071-MNZ081-090-IAZ002-003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-260500-
COTTONWOOD-JACKSON-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY-UNION-
SIOUX-OBRIEN-CLAY-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-BUENA VISTA-DIXON-DAKOTA-WOODBURY-
IDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SPIRIT LAKE...YANKTON...VERMILLION...ELK POINT...
SIOUX CENTER...SPENCER...LE MARS...STORM LAKE...SIOUX CITY...

1100 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2002

* FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT:
  THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
  BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
  EVENING COULD BE SEVERE.

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER:
  SEVERE WINDS...GUSTS EQUAL TO OR GREATER THAN 58 MPH.
  LARGE HAIL...DIME SIZE OR LARGER.
  HEAVY RAIN.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION:
  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 600 PM CDT.