Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST TUE SEP 10 2002

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS ARIZONA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATER
IN THE WEEK. SOME STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAIN TODAY. EXPECT A
DRYING TREND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN RISE TO NORMAL
BY THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY EJECT N-NE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BEST FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
EASTERN ARIZONA. BEST INSTABILITY WITH THE LOW WILL BE OVER WESTERN
ARIZONA WHERE SKIES HAVE ALREADY STARTED THE DAY PARTLY SUNNY. HIGH
PW VALUES ARE SPREAD NEARLY UNIFORMLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT STORMS THAT DEVELOP WINSLOW EAST WILL BE LONG-LIVED AND
EVENTUALLY WILL FORM A LARGE AREA OF RAIN CENTERED AROUND THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. STORMS THAT FORM OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY MAY BECOME VERY
STRONG TODAY...AND MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN AS
THEY MOVE NORTHWARD. CONTINUED DYNAMICS FROM THE EJECTING LOW MAY
CAUSE ACTIVITY TO LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS
FOR A POSSIBLE FFA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL OTHER PRODUCTS COVER
TRENDS WELL...AND WILL NOT UPDATE FOR NOW. PETERSON.

.FGZ...NONE

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   WED     THU        TDY TON   WED   THU
FLAGSTAFF        067/047 068/045 066/041      050 070 050 040 040 030
WINSLOW          076/056 077/054 077/052      050 070 050 030 040 030
PRESCOTT         075/054 077/053 077/053      050 070 050 040 040 030
PAGE             079/060 078/060 076/058      040 060 040 030 030 020
WINDOW ROCK      070/048 069/046 070/043      050 070 060 040 040 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 076/055 075/053 076/050      050 070 060 040 040 030
COTTONWOOD       086/062 088/061 088/061      050 070 050 040 040 030
GRAND CANYON     068/048 069/046 067/042      050 070 050 040 040 030
GREER            064/046 065/044 063/040      050 070 060 040 040 030
HEBER            072/050 073/048 071/044      050 070 050 040 040 030
JACOB LAKE       064/047 065/045 063/041      050 070 050 040 040 030
NAVAJO N.M.      068/054 067/052 068/049      040 060 050 030 030 020
PAYSON           079/054 081/053 081/053      050 070 050 030 040 030
SEDONA           083/061 085/060 085/060      050 070 050 040 040 030
SELIGMAN         078/047 080/046 080/046      040 060 040 030 030 020
SHOW LOW         073/056 074/054 072/050      050 070 060 040 040 030
ST. JOHNS        072/052 073/050 073/048      050 070 050 030 040 030
WUPATKI N.M.     078/058 079/056 079/054      050 070 050 030 040 030

AZZ004>018-037>040-101930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST TUE SEP 10 2002

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
STORMS HAVE ALREADY AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...INCLUDING WINSLOW...THIS MORNING. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR TODAYS STORMS WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN. COLDER AIR AT THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
EXISTS IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL TO MAINLY YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES...IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAINS.

WITH THE SATURATED OR NEAR SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS AROUND THE
STATE...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL REMAIN MODERATE TODAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH TODAYS STORMS WILL RANGE FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AS MUCH
AS 3 INCHES WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...

RODEO-CHEDISKI BURN AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE BURN AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE FIRE SITE IS MODERATE TODAY.

INDIAN BURN AREA...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE BURN AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. FLOODING
POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION IS MODERATE TODAY.