Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002
Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Aug 16, 2002, 4:35 PM MST for Coconino County, Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 115 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 16, 2002, 4:35 PM MST (23:35 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 16, 2002, 6:30 PM MST
- In force
- 115 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Coconino County, AZ, Gila County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 25 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 11.6 hours before the alert went out and 109 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 201 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -320 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2419 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 6 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -16 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 52 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
WGUS55 KFGZ 162342
FFWFGZ
AZC005-007-170230-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
435 PM MST FRI AUG 16 2002
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...FOR THE
EAST VERDE RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. THIS ALSO INCLUDES THE
COMMUNITIES OF...PINE...PAYSON...TONTO VILLAGE...STAR VILLAGE
AND WHISPERING PINES.
* UNTIL 730 PM MST
* AT 435 PM MST...THE PUBLIC REPORTED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER WHISPERING
PINES...OR ABOUT 9 MILES EAST OF PINE. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS
MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 5 MPH.
A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
LAT...LON 3450 11110 3430 11113 3422 11119 3422 11133
3430 11150 3446 11145What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 16, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 16, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 5 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST FRI AUG 16 2002
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY...TURNING GRADUALLY COOLER STARTING SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA BY EARLY NEXT NEXT WEEK.
.DISCUSSION...A COMPLICATED FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR SATURDAY A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE PACIFIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS SHOULD
BRING IN SOME WARMER MID LEVEL AIR AND ACT TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT. ON THE OTHER HAND A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AS A RESULT...THINK ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE RIM SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BEGINS TO NOSE INTO ARIZONA WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT COULD BE A RAPID UPSWING IN
MOISTURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH ACTIVITY NUDGING NORTHWARD.
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE EXPECT TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO
BACK OFF FROM RECORD LEVELS.
IN THE EXTENDED...BY TUESDAY MODELS SHOWING A STRONG TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA WHICH WOULD KEEP NORTHERN
ARIZONA IN THE MONSOON MOISTURE FOR THE MOST PART. WILL BROAD BRUSH
ZONES WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST CORNER
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
MCCOLLUM
.FGZ...NONE.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON SAT SUN MON TON SAT SUN MON
FLAGSTAFF 049/086 050/083 052/082 020 020 020 020 020 030
WINSLOW 056/098 058/096 060/095 000 000 000 010 020 020
PRESCOTT 062/093 063/092 065/091 020 020 020 020 020 020
PAGE 072/100 072/099 074/098 000 000 000 000 000 010
WINDOW ROCK 043/091 044/090 046/089 010 010 010 020 020 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 051/097 052/096 054/095 010 010 010 020 020 020
COTTONWOOD 070/104 071/103 073/102 020 020 020 020 020 020
GRAND CANYON 049/087 050/084 052/083 010 010 010 010 010 010
GREER 046/081 047/078 049/077 010 020 010 030 030 040
HEBER 051/091 052/088 054/087 010 020 010 030 030 040
JACOB LAKE 049/084 050/081 052/080 010 010 010 010 010 010
NAVAJO N.M. 048/091 049/090 051/089 010 010 010 020 020 020
PAYSON 063/097 064/096 066/095 020 020 010 020 020 020
SEDONA 068/101 069/100 071/099 020 010 010 020 020 020
SELIGMAN 055/096 056/095 058/094 010 010 010 010 020 020
SHOW LOW 057/091 058/088 060/087 010 020 010 020 020 030
ST. JOHNS 051/093 053/091 055/090 010 000 000 010 020 020
WUPATKI N.M. 057/100 059/098 061/097 010 000 000 010 020 020The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 4:42 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Gila | 3 hr |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every flash flood warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.