Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002

Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

September 18, 2002Apache County, Navajo County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Sep 18, 2002, 11:05 AM MST for Apache County, Navajo County, Arizona. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 18, 2002, 11:05 AM MST (18:05 UTC)
Expired: Sep 18, 2002, 2:00 PM MST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Apache County, AZ, Navajo County, AZ

The radar

The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 216 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 238 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 72 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -105 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1871 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 44 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 89 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS55 KFGZ 181805
FFWFGZ
AZC001-017-182100-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1104 AM MST WED SEP 18 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL APACHE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WIDE RUINS...WINDOW ROCK
  EXTREME EAST CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA

* UNTIL 200 PM MST

* AT 1104 AM MST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
  RAIN 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUNRISE SPRINGS...OR ABOUT 12 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF INDIAN WELLS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT OR PASS CLOSE
TO...
  6 MILES SOUTH OF SUNRISE SPRINGS AT 1115 AM MST
  8 MILES SOUTH OF CORNFIELDS AT 1120 AM MST
  3 MILES NORTH OF KLAGETOH AT 1135 AM MST
  2 MILES SOUTH OF WINDOW ROCK AT 1230 PM MST
  7 MILES SOUTH OF FORT DEFIANCE AT 1235 PM MST

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3568 10994 3528 10990 3529 10904 3559 10796
          3603 10807

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 18, 9:25 AM MST, 1 hour 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 18, 9:25 AM MST, 1 hour 40 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 AM MST WED SEP 18 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS...AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER COLORADO WILL DRAG A S/WV
INTO EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. THIS SAME LOW ALSO INDUCED A SURGE
OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. COOLING AT THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH SHEAR AND MOISTURE
WILL COME TOGETHER FOR AN ACTIVE DAY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. IN
ADDITION TO THIS...WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARE REACHING 40 KTS IN
THE EASTERN ZONES...AND A NPW IS IN EFFECT. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
IN THE EASTERN ZONES AS WELL...BUT WILL FURTHER UPDATE THE FIRST
PERIOD TO FINE TUNE LOCATION OF EARLY CONVECTION. SYSTEM WILL PULL
OUT TONIGHT WITH CLEARING AND A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS. PETERSON.

.FGZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST FOR ZONES 11>14 16>18 AND 40.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   THU     FRI        TDY TON   THU   FRI
FLAGSTAFF        069/037 067/035 072/040      000 000 000 000 000 000
WINSLOW          080/047 079/044 084/050      020 000 000 000 000 000
PRESCOTT         079/047 078/045 083/050      000 000 000 000 000 000
PAGE             080/054 078/052 081/057      020 000 000 000 000 000
WINDOW ROCK      068/033 068/031 071/036      040 020 000 000 000 000
CANYON DE CHELLY 074/040 074/038 077/043      040 020 000 000 000 000
COTTONWOOD       090/055 089/053 094/058      000 000 000 000 000 000
GRAND CANYON     070/038 068/036 073/041      000 000 000 000 000 000
GREER            066/036 064/034 069/039      040 000 000 000 000 000
HEBER            074/040 072/038 077/043      030 000 000 000 000 000
JACOB LAKE       066/037 064/035 069/040      000 000 000 000 000 000
NAVAJO N.M.      066/039 066/037 069/042      030 020 000 000 000 000
PAYSON           083/047 082/045 087/050      020 000 000 000 000 000
SEDONA           087/054 086/052 091/057      000 000 000 000 000 000
SELIGMAN         082/040 081/038 086/043      000 000 000 000 000 000
SHOW LOW         075/046 073/044 078/049      030 000 000 000 000 000
ST. JOHNS        076/043 075/040 080/046      030 000 000 000 000 000
WUPATKI N.M.     082/049 081/046 086/052      000 000 000 000 000 000

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 18, 9:15 AM MST, 1 hour 50 minutes before

AZZ004>018-037>040-181930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST TUE SEP 18 2002

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
MAINLY EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY...

...WIND ADVISORY OVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA UNTIL 3 PM
MST...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER COLORADO COMBINED WITH A SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE INCREASE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONTINUED STORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM PAYSON TO WINSLOW NORTHEAST TO THE 4-CORNERS. MOST STORMS
WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. DUE TO THE
RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE STATE...SOME AREAS NORTH OF THE RIM WILL
HAVE A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR MINOR FLOODING.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA TODAY. A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD UNTIL 3 PM MST.
AREAS IN THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45
MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...

RODEO-CHEDISKI BURN AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE
UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN.

INDIAN BURN AREA...NO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 18, 11:04 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Apache, Navajo	116 min
Sep 18, 11:30 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Apache, Navajo	3 hr
Sep 18, 11:30 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Apache, Navajo	2 hr
Sep 18, 11:45 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Apache, Navajo	2 hr
Sep 18, 11:46 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Apache, Navajo	3 hr
Sep 18, 4:31 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Apache, Gila, Navajo	119 min
Sep 18, 4:35 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Apache, Gila, Navajo	3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2002 Every flash flood warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.