Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002

Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

August 19, 2002Coconino County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Aug 19, 2002, 7:15 PM MST for Coconino County, Arizona. It was in force for 105 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 19, 2002, 7:15 PM MST (02:15 UTC)
Expired: Aug 19, 2002, 9:00 PM MST
In force: 105 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Coconino County, AZ

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 2.3 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 373 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1992 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -9 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 57 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS55 KFGZ 200215
FFWFGZ
AZC005-200500-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
715 PM MST MON AUG 19 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...THIS      
  AREA INCLUDES THE REGION OF THE KAIBAB PLATEAU BETWEEN FREDONIA    
  AND JACOB LAKE ALONG HWY ALT 89

* UNTIL 900 PM MST

* AT 707 PM MST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
  RAIN OVER NORTHWESTERN COCONINO COUNTY...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH OF
  FREDONIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. RADAR INDICATED UP TO 3     
  INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS.

* THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT HWY ALT 89   
  BETWEEN FREDONIA AND JACOB LAKE. 

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3670 11258 3666 11245 3698 11206 3697 11248

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 19, 3:00 PM MST, 4 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 19, 3:00 PM MST, 4 hours 15 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 PM MST MON AUG 19 2002

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE. SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRIER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY THURSDAY...WITH A DRYING TREND SPREADING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...ALL OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...EXCEPT OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY WHERE SOME LOW LEVEL
COOL AIR AND CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN HARD TO OVERCOME.  MAIN THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS CAUSING SOME
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE RIM AND LCR VALLEY.  SOME ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE ALSO FORMED OVER THE FAR NORTH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVED INTO THAT AREA THIS MORNING.  REMNANTS OF LAST EVENINGS MCS
OVER SOUTHERN AZ NOW DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN YAVAPAI
COUNTY...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.  THIS MID LEVEL VORT MAX IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AZ OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING THE RAIN
THREAT THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA (COUNTY
WARNING AREA).

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
NW CORNER OF THE CWA WHERE DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW START TO MOVE
IN. THIS IS DUE TO A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PAC NW. WILL MENTION
SOME BREEZES OVER THE GRAND CANYON AND KAIBAB PLATEAU AREAS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS GRADIENTS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.THIS TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NEVADA BY THURSDAY. THE
DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.  WILL REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIP OVER THE NW CORNER OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 THURSDAY.  BY THE
WEEKEND...LOOKS LIKE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA...SO HAVE REMOVED WEEKEND POPS OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAIN AREA.  JOHNDROW

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON TUE   WED     THU        TON TUE   WED     THU
FLAGSTAFF        055/077 052/077 049/078      040 040 030 030 020 010
WINSLOW          065/088 064/088 061/089      040 040 040 020 020 010
PRESCOTT         063/084 061/084 059/084      030 030 030 020 020 010
PAGE             075/093 069/092 068/092      020 020 020 000 000 000
WINDOW ROCK      054/079 054/080 050/081      030 040 040 030 030 020
CANYON DE CHELLY 062/085 062/086 058/087      020 030 030 020 020 010
COTTONWOOD       071/095 069/095 067/095      030 020 020 020 020 010
GRAND CANYON     055/078 052/078 049/079      020 020 020 010 010 000
GREER            052/072 049/072 046/073      030 060 050 040 030 030
HEBER            057/082 054/082 051/083      030 040 040 030 030 020
JACOB LAKE       055/075 052/075 049/076      020 020 020 010 010 000
NAVAJO N.M.      059/079 059/080 055/081      020 030 030 020 020 010
PAYSON           064/088 062/088 060/088      020 030 030 030 020 020
SEDONA           069/092 067/092 065/092      030 020 020 020 020 010
SELIGMAN         056/087 054/087 052/087      020 020 020 020 020 000
SHOW LOW         063/082 060/082 057/083      030 040 040 030 030 020
ST. JOHNS        060/083 059/083 056/084      030 030 030 020 020 020
WUPATKI N.M.     066/090 065/090 062/091      030 040 040 020 020 010

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 19, 7:15 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino	45 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2002 Every flash flood warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.