Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
220 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2002

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS CHANCES FOR PCPN YET TONIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRI AFTERNOON. MODELS SLOW TO COME IN
THIS AFTERNOON...AVN SLOWEST. HOWEVER...BOTH THE ETA AND NGM
REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING THE STACKED LOW FINALLY PUSHING EAST
OF THE FA. USED A MODEL BLEND WITH MOS TEMPS/INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE
...SO LITTLE TEMP TWEAKING NECESSARY.

MAIN 500 MB LOW PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN BY 12Z FRI AS SFC LOW STARTS
TO LOSE DEFINITION. MAIN 500 MB COLD POOL ALSO SHIFTS INTO EASTERN
FA THRU THE EVENING AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA TOWARD MORNING TAKING
THE BEST INSTABILITY WITH IT. HOWEVER...ONE MORE SPOKE OF VORTICITY
ROTATES AROUND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW OVER MN PORTION OF FA BY
06Z FRI. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A LOW MENTION OF PCPN FROM
THE VALLEY EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL ONLY KEEP THUNDER MENTION UNTIL 06Z
FRI THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS. GETTING SOME SMALL HAIL AND FUNNEL
REPORTS ALONG WITH MID 50 DBZ ECHOES. FREEZING LEVEL ONLY 7-8K
FEET...AND VILS ONLY IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. EXPECT THE
MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTIVE PCPN TO SLOW DOWN WITH SUNSET...BUT THE
VORT SHOULD PROVIDE REGENERATION ACROSS MN PORTION OF FA AGAIN
LATER. MODELS SHOWING SOME DRYING TAKING PLACE ON RH CROSS
SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ND SIDE AFTER 06Z FRI. WITH ANY
CLEARING WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS A BIT COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.

COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA LATE FRI MORNING/FRI AFTERNOON.
CANADIAN AND ETA BOTH NOW SHOWING THIS FEATURE TO BE A DRY PASSAGE.
ETA 850 MB DEW POINTS LOOK ODD (QUITE DRY)...WHILE THE NGM/AVN LOOKS
MORE LIKE CONTINUITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE ETA HIGHEST WITH SFC DEW
POINTS...SHOWING MID 50S ACROSS MN FA. LOOKS LIKE A DECENT VORT
DIVING SOUTH WITH THIS FEATURE AND A WEAK 300 MB JET ALSO BECOMES
FAVORABLY ORIENTED. CAPE APPROACHES 1000 J/KG OVER NORTHWEST MN WITH
LIS TO -4 ON THE ETA. LOOKS LIKE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ALSO COMES DOWN AT 500 MB. THEREFORE WILL LEAVE THE TSTM MENTION FOR
THE AFTERNOON. WILL TAPER OFF THE PCPN ACROSS MN PORTION OF FA FRI
EVENING. SFC HIGH FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SAT WITH NEXT
WEAK LOW STILL ON TAP FOR SUN.

.EXTENDED...
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN RETURN FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EARLY IN
PERIOD TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS BY WED. EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON WED...AS GULF OPENS UP WITH SFC BOUNDARY
AND INSTABILITY. WILL KEEP THU DRY FOR NOW...AS WEAK HIGH TRIES TO
BUILD IN WITH TEMPS CONTINUING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.FGF...NONE.

GODON/KELLENBENZ

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-140100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1255 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2002

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

THE ATMOSPHERE IS CONDUCIVE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY COMBINE TO PRODUCE FUNNEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON. IF A FUNNEL CLOUD COMES IN CONTACT WITH THE
GROUND...REPORT THIS IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT. LISTEN FOR FUTURE STATEMENTS ON THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

KELLENBENZ