Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 31, 2002Marshall County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 31, 2002, 8:51 PM CDT for Marshall County, Minnesota. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 31, 2002, 8:51 PM CDT (01:51 UTC)
Expired: Jul 31, 2002, 9:30 PM CDT
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Marshall County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 31, 6:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 00:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 259 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1707 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -48 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1366 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 20 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 88 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

277 
WUUS53 KFGF 010151
SVRFAR
MNC089-010230-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
851 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  WESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT.

* AT 846 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STEPHEN...OR ABOUT 11
  MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRAFTON...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  STEPHEN AT 905 PM...
  ARGYLE AT 910 PM AND
  OLD MILL STATE PARK AT 925 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4845 9711 4825 9712 4820 9636 4841 9627


30

NNNN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 31, 2:10 PM CDT, 6 hours 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 2:10 PM CDT, 6 hours 41 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
210 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2002

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CONVECTIVE THREAT WITH COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE TONIGHT AND THEN WINDY/CCOLER CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT BUT AVN WAS TOO HIGH WITH SFC DEW POINTS WHILE ETA
OVERDONE WITH CURRENT QPF. SO CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A BLEND BETWEEN
ETA AND AVN FOR GRIDS.

19Z SFC MAP SHOWS SEVERAL DISTINCT AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MAIN SFC
LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN. WEAK LOW IN SRN MANITOBA WITH PREFRONTAL
TROUGH LINE BACK TOWARD ANOTHER WEAK LOW IN ERN MT. ALREADY HAS BEEN
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWING UP ON RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOUTHERN PORTION OF FA
REMAINS CAPPED LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SO FAR TODAY. NORTHERN FA NOT CAPPED AND HAVE FINALLY SEEN SOME
MOISTURE RETURN/SFC HEATING. MSAS SHOWING THIS AREA QUITE
UNSTABLE WITH COMPUTED SFC LIS NEAR -9. STILL WAITING TO SEE HOW
MUCH CONVERGENCE THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE AS MOST STATIONS SHOWING
WEAK SFC WIND FLOW. COLD FRONT TIMING STILL ON TAP FOR 06Z IN THE
VALLEY AND THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT. SO WILL KEEP A SCT THUNDER
MENTION IN ND ZONES THRU THE EVENING AND THRU MIDNIGHT ON THE MN
SIDE. WIDE AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT SO WILL KEEP SHOWER MENTION IN FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG 850 MB COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL WITH 40+ KNOTS...SO WILL UP WINDS A BIT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THU.

WILL HANG ONTO A FEW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN MN COUNTIES EARLY THU AS
WELL WITH BOTH ETA AND AVN THEN SHOWING A GOOD DRY PUNCH WORKING IN.
LONG ADVERTISED COOL DOWN ON TAP FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 12Z AVN
KEEPS FRI NIGHT DRY NOW BUT ETA EXTENSION STILL KEEPS SOME WARM
FRONTAL PCPN. CANADIAN ALSO HAS SOME PCPN FRI NIGHT-SAT...SO WILL
KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR NOW.

.EXTENDED...
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL AFFECT THE NRN PLAINS IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH TIMING AND ANY PCPN CHANCES THE
CHALLENGE.  12Z AVN/00Z MRF HAD SOME CONSISTENCY WITH 00Z CANADIAN
SO GENERALLY DID NOT DEVIATE FROM MODEL SOLNS. ONE SYSTEM MOVING
THRU THE NRN PLAINS MONDAY WITH THE NEXT ONE MOVING THRU LATE
WEDNESDAY. CARRIED CHC TSRA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION THEN
CONTINUED CHC POPS THRU MON NIGHT AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.  TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR OR TAD BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AS REAL HOT AIR STAYS
SOUTH OF AREA.

.FGF...NONE.

GODON/RIDDLE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 31, 6:21 PM CDT, 2 hours 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
621 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0600 PM    3 S LEEDS                 ND   TORNADO
07/31/02   BENSON                         BRIEF TOUCHDOWN REPORTED 3
                                          MILES SOUTH OF LEEDS BY
                                          SPOTTER

0611 PM    LEEDS                     ND   2.00 INCH HAIL
07/31/02   BENSON

ME

Local storm report, Jul 31, 7:47 PM CDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
747 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0639 AM    CHURCHS FERRY             ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/31/02   RAMSEY

0610 PM    5 N LEEDS                 ND   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/31/02   BENSON

0618 PM    LEEDS                     ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/31/02   BENSON

0618 PM    4 E LEEDS                 ND   2.00 INCH HAIL
07/31/02   BENSON

0627 PM    CHURCHS FERRY             ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/31/02   RAMSEY

0720 PM    2 N DEVILS LAKE           ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/31/02   RAMSEY                         WALL CLOUD

0720 PM    MADDOCK                   ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/31/02   BENSON                         GROUND COVERED TOTALLY
                                          WHITE

0730 PM    2 NW DEVILS LAKE          ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/31/02   RAMSEY

ME

Local storm report, Jul 31, 7:47 PM CDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
747 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2002

...CORRECTED TIME OF FIRST REPORT...

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0639 PM    CHURCHS FERRY             ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/31/02   RAMSEY

0610 PM    5 N LEEDS                 ND   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/31/02   BENSON

0618 PM    LEEDS                     ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/31/02   BENSON

0618 PM    4 E LEEDS                 ND   2.00 INCH HAIL
07/31/02   BENSON

0627 PM    CHURCHS FERRY             ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/31/02   RAMSEY

0720 PM    2 N DEVILS LAKE           ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/31/02   RAMSEY                         WALL CLOUD

0720 PM    MADDOCK                   ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/31/02   BENSON                         GROUND COVERED TOTALLY
                                          WHITE

0730 PM    2 NW DEVILS LAKE          ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/31/02   RAMSEY

ME

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 31, 8:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson	46 min
Jul 31, 9:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami	44 min
Jul 31, 10:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Marshall, Pennington, Polk, Red Lake	49 min
Jul 31, 10:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami	29 min
Jul 31, 11:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Clearwater, Polk	30 min
Aug 1, 12:00 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Hubbard	45 min
Aug 1, 12:39 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Wadena	36 min
Aug 1, 1:33 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Clay, Norman	42 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.