Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 2002

PLENTY OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES (OLD AND NEW) SCATTERED ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHT AND TODAYS
CONVECTION. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIXED IN THERE SOMEWHERE ALSO...
ALTHOUGH PRETTY DIFFUSE AND NOT ESPECIALLY DISTINGUISHABLE FROM
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARIES. SHOULD SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MOST NUMEROUS NORTHERN 2/3
OF THE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES JUST ISSUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS ATMOSPHERE IS MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING...BECOMING
MOSTLY SHOWERS LATE. NORTHEAST GEORGIA GETS WEDGED DAYTIME SATURDAY
SO I WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE FROM ATHENS TO ATLANTA AND NORTHWARD
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
PUSHES WEDGE BACK OUT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. SUNDAY MAINLY DRY BETWEEN
EXITING SYSTEM AND NEXT SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS.

STRONG BUT FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH/SHORTWAVE SWEEPS ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY WITH A RATHER DEEP SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...QUICKLY LIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY THE END
OF THE DAY MONDAY AND DRAGGING A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
A COOL START TO THE PERIOD.

ATL  66 73 65 85 /  30 40 30 10
AHN  65 71 64 85 /  30 50 30 10
GVL  62 70 62 83 /  30 50 30 10
RMG  63 79 64 85 /  30 40 20 10
CSG  68 84 67 90 /  20 20 20 10
MCN  67 82 66 89 /  20 30 20 10

.ATL...
GA...NONE.

MSS

OUR DETAILED COUNTY FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT FOUS52 KFFC.
OUR AREA FORECAST FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA CITIES IS AVAILABLE
AT FLUS42 KFFC.

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-110000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1110 AM EDT FRI MAY 10 2002

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTH GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ANYWHERE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA WILL BE UNSTABLE. CAPES OF 1000 TO 2000 ARE EXPECTED...ALONG
WITH LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 2 TO MINUS 4. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A WEAK CAP OVER GEORGIA OF 1 TO 2 DEGREES
WHICH MAY PREVENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SPOTTERS
SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IF NEEDED. EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FFC.

BDL