Severe Thunderstorm Warning 266, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
315 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2002

OVERVIEW: WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT ENTERING EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON NOW PROGGED TO BECOME STATIONARY NEAR OR A LITTLE
NORTH OF AN ATLANTA-ATHENS LINE BY 06Z TONIGHT. LARGE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD...ALLOWING SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF
RIDGE AND AFFECT THE AREA BY MID WEEK.

SHORT TERM: CONVECTIVE TEMP IN ATL AREA AROUND 94 THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUNDING SHOWS DRY AIR OVERHEAD. THINK VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF LATE
AFTERNOON COMVECTION THIS FAR NORTH. SOME EVENING CONVECTION
LINGERING IN CENTRAL GEORGIA. DRIER AIR OVER NORTH GEORGIA IS
SHORT-LIVED AS MEAN RH BEGINS CLIMBING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE POPS IN CENTRAL AND WILL NEED TO ADD SMALL POPS SUNDAY AND
MOPNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTH. TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LESS HOT WITH
MORE MOISTURE AND THE RIDGE HAVING REACHED ITS MAX STRENGTH.

EXTENDED: AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES AND WITH AMPLE MOISTURE HANGING
AROUND WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS MID THRU LATE WEEK. SHORT WAVE WILL
PUSH ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY...BRINGING THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES. NO REAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR...SO FOR FOR TEMPS WILL
STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS AND MOS GUIDANCE.

FCSTID = 22

ATL  75 90 72 90 /  10 20 10 20
AHN  73 90 70 90 /  10 20 10 20
GVL  71 89 70 88 /  10 20 10 20
RMG  70 93 69 90 /  10 20 10 20
CSG  76 94 73 92 /  20 30 20 30
MCN  73 93 70 91 /  20 30 20 30

.ATL...
GA...NONE.

OUR DETAILED COUNTY FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT FOUS52 KFFC.
OUR AREA FORECAST FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA CITIES IS AVAILABLE
AT FLUS42 KFFC.

DH

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-070145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
410 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2002

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON FROM AUGUSTA TO COLUMBUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
TENNESSEE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH CAROLINA WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN
GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH IN CENTRAL GEORGIA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THOMSON
TO MILLEDGEVILLE TO MACON TO COLUMBUS BETWEEN NOW AND 10 PM. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED.

.DISCUSSION...
VERY HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S HAS CREATED
A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH CAPES IN THE 3000 TO 4000 RANGE.
SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL LIFTING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD START TO STABILIZE LATE
EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FFC.