Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2002

OVERVIEW:  SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND STAGNANT AND
PERSISTENT WEAK CUTOFF LOW IN CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF AND UPPER RIDGE
OVER GA/SC.  LONG TERM FORECAST REVOLVES AROUND FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
ATTENDANT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH REACHES FORECAST AREA THU-FRI
TIME FRAME.  CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE IN THE LATER
PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED...ALTHOUGH THE MRF NO LONGER AS BOLD IN THE
EXTENDED PERIODS AS IT HAS BEEN ON THE PREVIOUS 3 RUNS.
NOW...INSTEAD OF A DEEP CUTOFF OVER AL/GA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...IT HAS A HIGHER LATITUDE...NEGATIVELY TITLED TROUGH ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA.  THEREAFTER...IT SWEEPS THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE...UKMET/ECMWF INSISTENT ON UPPER RIDGE
REDEVELOPING...REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARMER FORECAST FOR SURE.

SHORT TERM:  FOR THE SHORT TERM...ETA/MESO-ETA BY FAR THE MODEL OF
CHOICE...WHICH DID EXTREMELY WELL IN PINPOINTING YESTERDAYS SEVERE
CONVECTION. TODAY...SO FAR...HAS BEEN NO EXCEPTION.  EARLIER SHIFT
FOCUSED ON POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CURRENT ETA/MESO-ETA HAS MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF OUR CWA FOR THIS AFTN/EVE. SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN A KEY TO LOCATING CONVECTION THE PAST FEW DAYS.
EVEN THOUGH CAPES AND LIS SUGGEST EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS MOST OF
THE CWA...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOCUS LACKING. BEST AREA FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTN WILL BE WEST IN AL...NORTH IN TN...AND FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS N FL. THIS ALSO IN LINE WITH P.E./P.E. TO POP VALUES
AND CONSISTENT WITH PERSISTENT AREA OF MID-CLOUDS WHICH HAS REMAINED
OVER CENTRAL PORTION OF CWA...ACTING AS A CAPPING MECHANISM. WHAT
ACTIVITY THERE IS WILL AGAIN BE LARGELY DIURNAL...THUS WILL ONLY
CARRY 20% POPS OVERNIGHT AND WORD MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FOR
WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK EVEN LESS LIKELY FOR CONVECTION WITH
INTRUSION OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE EAST AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES
SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
ADDITION...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY FROM THE EAST
AGAIN...ACTING AS A FURTHER CAP. WILL GO ALONG WITH CURRENT
THINKING...KEEP POPS AT 20% FOR WED...AGAIN ENDING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...THE SITUATION BECOMES A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING WITH
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOME WESTERLY AND WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. IGNORING MRF/AVN SOLUTION AND GOING WITH
ETA...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN TO RECENT SUCH
SYSTEMS...NAMELY DIMINISHING SIGNIFICANTLY IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
TOWARD GA. EXPECT FRONT TO GRADUALLY CREEP THROUGH STATE THU/THU
NIGHT. CLEARLY BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA THIS WEEK WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...BUT ONLY CHANCE POPS APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
INSTABILITY PROGS SUGGEST BEST CHANCE OF TSRA...ALONG WITH
TIMING...WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

FOR TEMPERATURES...LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY. COOLING WILL BE MINOR AND
MAINLY A RESULT OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HUMIDITY. WILL NOT
ADVERTISE ANY SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE CHANGES THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER THU/FRI...HEATING UP SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WEEKEND.

EXTENDED:  AS NOTED ABOVE...MRF CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLY
DIFFERENT FROM THE UKMET/ECMWF.  WILL CONTINUE WITH THINKING OF
PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND OTHER OFFICES THAT MRF...WHILE LESS BOLD THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...IS STILL ERRONEOUS.  THUS...I AM TOTALLY IGNORING ITS
SOLUTION OF A LATE SPRING LIKE FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
UKMET/ECMWF KEEP UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL OF A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE SUN-MON.
THUS...WILL WILL CONTINUE THE EXTENDED WITH A SUMMERTIME
PATTERN...NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DIURNAL CONVECTION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:  HIGH IN THE SHORT TERM...MODERATE IN THE
EXTENDED BECAUSE OF INDICATED MODEL DISCREPANCIES.

FCSTID = 19

ATL  74 91 74 88 /  10 20 20 40
AHN  70 92 71 89 /  10 20 10 40
GVL  71 90 71 87 /  10 20 10 40
RMG  72 95 72 87 /  20 20 20 50
CSG  75 96 76 95 /  10 20 10 40
MCN  72 95 72 94 /  10 20 10 30

.ATL...
GA...NONE.

OUR DETAILED COUNTY FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT FOUS52 KFFC.
OUR AREA FORECAST FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA CITIES IS AVAILABLE
AT FLUS42 KFFC.

RAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
526 PM EDT TUE JUN 04 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0416 PM    BUENA VISTA               GA   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/04/02   MARION                         PUBLIC REPORT.

0435 PM    COLUMBUS                  GA   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/04/02   MUSCOGEE                       MEDIA - TV REPORTED

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>023-030>034-041>049-052>061-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-042330-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
543 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2002

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY HAS
CREATED FOR A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND THUS ENHANCED
PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS EVENING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE CONDITIONS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE IN
THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO THIS EVENING...THOUGH WILL
WEAKEN TOWARDS 10 PM...WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FFC.

JCD