Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2002

OVERVIEW: COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST CWA ATTM WITH
LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO AROUND 70 AND DIURNAL ENERGY SUPPORTING SFC TEMPS RISING INTO MID
80S TO NEAR 90...ACROSS SOUTH CWA...WILL PROVIDE SFC INSTABILITY.
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWING MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH/STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS WHICH WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  TWO SUBTLE RIPPLES/SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN MEAN WAVE AS IT
SHIFTS EAST EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY...ONE PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHERN GEORGIA ATTM WITH SECONDARY IMPULSE NEAR BASE OF THE MEAN
WAVE BACK INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AS
SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS EAST INTO UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS LATE AFTERNOON.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MAIN
THREAT WITH INCREASING THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENT.

SHORT TERM: MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
CANADIAN HIGH SETTLING INTO TN VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COOLEST
NIGHT.  MADE LITTLE CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS SEEMS TO BE IN
LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS. FOR WINDS...WILL KEEP WITH CURRENT
FCST..EXPECTING WINDS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS GRADIENT
WEAKENS. FOR TEMPS...WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FWC/MAV NUMBERS FOR
HIGHS...WHICH IS A FAIR WARMER THAN GRID NUMBERS.  MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL BE RULE BASED ON 1000-500RH VALUES FOR TUES AND WED.  WAA
BRINGS PTLY CLDY BACK IN AND WARMER TEMPS GOING INTO END OF WEEK.

EXTENDED:  ECMWF/MRF (OPAVN) SWAP WITH OPAVN TRENDING MORE TOWARD
ITS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION FOR SAT/SUN.  ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED.  BOTH
OPAVN AND ECMWF FASTER WITH SYSTEM BRINGING IT IN ON FRIDAY BUT
BASED ON TRENDS...SEE PREEPD PRODUCT...WILL GO BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE
CLOSER TO ENSEMBLES BRINGING SYSTEM IN SAT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: FRONT ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK MAKES FOR CONFIDENT
FORECAST.  UNCERTAINTY INTO WEEKEND WITH DISCONTINUITY IN FORECAST
MODELS TIMING AND ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING.

FCSTID = 39

ATL  52 75 51 79 /  10 00 00 00
AHN  51 76 50 77 /  10 00 00 00
GVL  50 73 48 75 /  10 00 00 00
RMG  50 74 49 78 /  10 00 00 00
CSG  55 82 54 82 /  30 00 00 00
MCN  53 80 51 81 /  40 00 00 00

.ATL...
GA...NONE.

OUR DETAILED COUNTY FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT FOUS52 KFFC.
OUR AREA FORECAST FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA CITIES IS AVAILABLE
AT FLUS42 KFFC.

DOBUR

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-132100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1113 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2002

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHWEST GEORGIA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PUSH ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO GEORGIA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH CAPES RISING INTO THE 1400 TO 1600
RANGE...AND LIFTED INDICES RANGING FROM MINUS 2 TO MINUS 4...SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.

.FOR SPOTTERS...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR UPDATED HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOKS ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA..

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/FFC.