Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
311 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2002

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO BE WITH CHANCES OF
STORMS IN NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA AND TEMPERATURES.

WILL LEAVE HEAT ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED EARLIER IN PLACE...EVEN
THOUGH SOME PLACES ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGES MAY NOT QUITE REACH
CRITERIA. THE PROLONGED HEAT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL STILL HAVE AN
EFFECT. NOTE TO USERS OF THE KANSAS CITY INTERNATIONAL
OBSERVATION...IT WAS NOTED TODAY THAT THE DEWPOINT SENSOR WAS
READING TOO HIGH. A CORRECTION TO THE READING WAS STARTED AS OF 2
PM.  THIS WILL AFFECT HEAT INDEX READINGS.  EVEN AT THAT...AS THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION LIFTED NORTH
TODAY...AND TEMPERATURES RETURNED TO THE SOUTH...TEMPERATURES MADE A
NICE JUMP THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER THETA E LIFT NOTED IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING
NEAR THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY WITH PROFILERS SHOWING A 700 MB WAVE
CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AVN BRINGS THIS WAVE INTO FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT...SWINGING EAST OF AREA BY 18Z ON SATURDAY. MAY BE
SOME REMNANTS OF PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING AND LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION...WILL NOT ADD POPS TO FORECAST SATURDAY MORNING.
SOMETHING TO BE WATCHED.

WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT ANY OUTFLOWS FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS MIGHT
DO...BUT EXPECT AN EVEN FASTER RECOVERY ON SATURDAY AS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN
PLAINS.  850 TEMPS WOULD SAY EVEN A FEW DEGREES HOTTER ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE FLOW ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH BETTER THETA E
ADVECTION INTO IOWA. WILL LEAVE POPS IN EXTREME NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MAIN SHOW SHOULD TAKE PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONGER
WAVE MOVES TOWARD AREA.  SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
REGION ON MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AND
A BREAK IN THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES.

PC

1037 AM...
AFTER EXAMINATION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THIS MORNING, UPDATES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.  CONSENSUS BETWEEN
OMAHA, TOPEKA, AND THE HPC WAS TO RAISE TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY
FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

AFTER TUESDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE THE WESTERLIES WILL ONCE AGAIN
MIGRATE NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH UPPER RIDGING CONTROLLING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS TYPE OF WEATHER PATTERN
THIS TIME OF YEAR MEANS HOT, HOT, HOT.  850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE
MRF AND ECMWF RISE INTO THE 20 TO 24 RANGE FOR EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY.  OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS, 850 TEMPS
IN THAT RANGE HAVE YIELDED HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S WITH OUR
SUN-BAKED GROUND.  MRF MOS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO COOL THIS
SUMMER, SO I FEEL CONFIDENT GOING 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.  THE EXTENDED WILL BE DRY WITH
THE STORM TRACK OVER NORTHERN PLAINS.

KOCH

918 AM...
DOING A QUICK REVISION TO THE ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE TO BETTER
REFLECT END OF PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME BUT POSSIBILITY OF
REDEVELOPMENT LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON INTO NORTHWEST PART OF
MISSOURI AND EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS AS STORMS IN NEBRASKA AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MOVE TOWARD AREA. ALSO MINOR TWEAKS IN THE
TEMPERATURE...WIND AND DEWPOINT TRENDS IN THE RTP PRODUCT BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS.

PC

454 AM...
...HEAT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT THIS
MORNINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DIMINISH IN
AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW CURRENTLY
EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST MISSOURI ACROSS THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA.
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY ON
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. AND THIS MORNINGS RAIN SHOULD DO
LITTLE MORE THAN ADD TO THE HUMIDITY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO AS THIS
MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER
HAVE KEPT POPS LOW. BEST LIFT MAY ACTUALLY BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

AS WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH...850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE
FROM 20-24C YESTERDAY TO 22-26C TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. HAVE ISSUED HEAT ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S AND DEW POINTS
IN THE LOW 70S. HAVE ALSO EXTENDED ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
A BREAK IN THE HEAT WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.

NRR

.EAX...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ZONES
KSZ025...KSZ057...KSZ060...KSZ102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ZONES MOZ011>013...
MOZ020>022...MOZ028>031..MOZ037>040...MOZ043>046...MOZ053>054.

KSZ102-MOZ001>007-011>016-020-023-024-270300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
500 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 130...IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING. THIS TORNADO WATCH INCLUDES
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

ANDREW...ATCHISON...BUCHANAN...DAVIESS...DE KALB...GENTRY...GRUNDY...
HARRISON...HOLT...LINN...LIVINGSTON...MERCER...NODAWAY...PUTNAM...
SULLIVAN AND WORTH.

IN KANSAS:

DONIPHAN.

SOME CITIES IN THIS TORNADO WATCH INCLUDE BETHANY...CHILLICOTHE...
MARYVILLE...ROCKPORT...ST JOSEPH AND TRENTON.

SF