Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
140 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

140 PM...
SEVERAL UPDATES MADE THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SEVERE CONVECTION.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING STORMS HAS MOVED AS FAR SOUTH AS
A IXD TO DMO LINE.  RAIN-COOLED AIR CAUSING MARKED TEMPERATURE
DROP...SO MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY HAVE SEEN MAX TEMPERATURES FOR
TODAY.  ADJUSTED AFTERNOON ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS COOLING...AND
ALSO MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POPS.

FOR THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST.  COOLED THINGS DOWN A LITTLE...
AS TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL BE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR AREA.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING
UP TOO MUCH IN THE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.  RIDGE BEGINS
BUILDING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS KEEP CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ORIENTED FROM OKLAHOMA INTO OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.  ENSEMBLES OF VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL HINT
AT SHEAR ZONE...SO DECIDED TO ADD LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHEAST
ZONES IN THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

SF

500 AM...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST DEALING WITH THUNDERSTORMS, CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
VORTICITY MAX WILL DIVE SOUTH TODAY GIVING THE AREA ITS BEST CHANCE
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN IN WEEKS, HOWEVER TIMING THE ONSET OF STORMS
TODAY WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET.  I
PREFERRED THE INITIALIZATION OF THE 00Z AVN.  IT INITIALIZED THE
VORT MAX OVER THE DAKOTAS STRONGER THAN THE ETA, BUT NONE OF THE
MODELS HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS SO FAR
THIS MORNING.

TWO MAIN THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FIRST IS TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA ALONG THE EDGE OF THE 11C
ISOTHERM AT 700MB.  IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THIS CLUSTER WILL TRACK INTO
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  WITH VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL JET INFLOW, IT SHOULD
TRACK NICELY WITH THE MEAN STORM STEERING CURRENTS TO THE EAST.  THE
SECOND CLUSTER OF STORMS FORMED WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT PRESSING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.  MIDLEVEL COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW THESE STORMS
TO PROPAGATE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE IOWA MCS.  USING THE AVN TIMING,
THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEARING NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI BY 15-16Z.  I
EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE GOOD BY MID DAY WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  I HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 60-70 PERCENT OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.  THIS REGION WILL BE JUST NORTH OF THE 850MB LOW AND CLOSE
TO THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT.

THE ETA, NGM AND AVN APPEAR TO GENERATE QPF OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI
TOO EARLY.  I EXPECT ENOUGH MID LEVEL CAPPING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION
UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.  WITH THIS SAID, I BELIEVE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE ALTOCUMULUS
FIELD OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING, BUT EXPERIENCE TELLS ME
THAT THIS CLOUD FIELD WILL THIN CONSIDERABLY AFTER SUNRISE.  I MAY
BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE, BUT I EXPECT LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THE UPPER LOW IS
PROGGED TO DROP DUE SOUTH BISECTING THE STATE OF MISSOURI.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW WHERE
Q-VECTOR FORCING IS MAXIMIZED.  IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVE.  IF THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD FIELD ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS OVER EASTERN
MISSOURI AND A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS WELL.  FOR NOW, ILL PLAY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THROUGH
FRIDAY.  ONCE AGAIN AVIATION MOS WAS LITTLE HELP WITH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S FOR THURS AND FRIDAY.

KOCH

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
909 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0900 AM    5 WNW EAGLEVILLE          MO   65 MPH TSTM GUST
07/10/02   HARRISON                       REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
949 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0928 AM    MARTINSVILLE              MO   65 MPH TSTM GUST
07/10/02   HARRISON                       REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0935 AM    RIDGEWAY                  MO    MPH TSTM GUST
07/10/02   HARRISON                       LINES DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          PUBLIC.

0941 AM    1 N BETHANY               MO   65 MPH TSTM GUST
07/10/02   HARRISON                       TREES AND LINES DOWN

MOZ003>008-013>017-023>025-101715-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1159 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 126 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. COUNTIES NO
LONGER UNDER THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE...

IN MISSOURI:

ADAIR...DAVIESS...DE KALB...GENTRY...GRUNDY...HARRISON...LINN...
LIVINGSTON...MACON...MERCER...PUTNAM...SCHUYLER...SULLIVAN AND WORTH.

THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
AREA.

BROWNING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1219 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0440 PM    LACLEDE                   MO   WIND DAMAGE
07/09/02   LINN                           ROOF DAMAGE TO
                                          BUILDING. NUMEROUS
                                          POWER LINES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0630 PM    FAYETTE                   MO   WIND DAMAGE
07/09/02   HOWARD                         ROOF DAMAGE TO 3 OR 4
                                          BUILDINGS. NUMEROUS
                                          TREES AND POWER LINES
                                          DOWN. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1249 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

* HAZARDS EXPECTED -
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.  THE THREAT WILL EXTEND
ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.

* SPOTTER ACTIVATION -
MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO KIRKSVILLE.  THEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SOUTH OF THIS LINE.

DISCUSSION: STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI THIS MORNING PRODUCED A LARGE POOL OF RAIN COOLED AIR.
THIS HAS HELPED TO TEMPORARILY STABILIZE THE AIR ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS.  A FRONT WILL PUSH
TOWARD NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON TRIGGERING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH PORTION OF THE STATE.
MEANWHILE...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS STORMS WILL
STALL SOUTH OF THE KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA.  THIS BOUNDARY MAY
BECOME A FOCUS FOR NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS HOT AND VERY HUMID AIR CONVERGES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

BROWNING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
141 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1239 PM    BOONVILLE                 MO   65 MPH TSTM GUST
07/10/02   COOPER                         MEASURED WIND AND ROOF
                                          DAMAGE REPORTED.
                                          REPORTED BY MEDIA.