Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
225 PM CDT THU APR 18 2002

MAIN CONCERN IS EARLY THREAT FOR SVR WX.  OTHER CONCERN IS LINGERING
PCPN FRI AND COOL DOWN.  THEN IN LONGER TERM ATTEMPT TO PICK RAIN
FREE DAYS WITH ACTIVE PATTERN.

GENERAL PATTERNS OF MODELS REMAIN THE SAME WITH UPPER LO IN SWRN U.S
SENDING MINOR S/W NEWRD INTO THE AREA.  UPPER LO REMAIN IN THE SW
BFR LIFTING NEWRD BY SUN WITH RETURN TO WNW FLO AND MINOR S/W THRU
THIS FLO INTO NEXT WEEK.  IN SHORT TERM SFC FEATURES TIMING OF DRY
LINE AND FNT VERY CLOSE.  ATTM WITH DRY LN IN ERN NE MESOETA HAS GD
POSTIONING OF THIS FEATURE.  CLDNS HAS SOMEWHAT SURPRESSED DVLPMNT
ATTM HWVR STLT TRENDS SHOW BREAKING UP OF CLDNS NEAER TO DRY LN.
AREA INVOF LN PRIMED AS VERY HI CAPE ENVIRONMENT 4-5K WITH NO CAP
AND -8 TO -14 LI FM LTST GOES SOUNDINGS.  PRBLEM HERE IS HOW FAR
WILL DRY LN MOVE BFR DVLPMNT.  ATTM DRY LN MAYBE EAST OF MUCH OF THE
CWA HWVR NXT FEW HRS SHULD TELL WHETHER DVLPMNT TAKES OFF.
EVERYTHING IN PLACE WITH STG DYNAMICAL FIELDS FOR WINDS AND HAIL.
WILL WATCH CLOSELY AND LEAVE OPEN ENDED.  AS EVIDENT BY SFC MAP MUCH
COLDER AIR REMAIN IN THE DAKS THO SOME INTITIAL COOLING TAKES PLACE
BEHIND DRY LN.  ETA 850 HAS GD HANDLE ON THIS FOR TMW.  WITH CLDS
AND DECENT CAA WL LEAN TWD LWR MAVS NOT ONLY TMW BUT MUCH OF THE
FCST PD.  CONTINUES TO LOOK WET THRU MUCH OF THE FCST IN LONG TERM.
APPEARS ATTM WITH SLIGHT RIDGING INTO SAT THAT DRY DAY MAYBE  FRI
NGT THRU SAT DAY.

INTO THE EXTENDED PD AS STATED BFR AFTER SWRN FLO TRANSITIONS TO WNW
FLO XPCT WET PATTERN UNTIL NXT THU.  TIMING OF SYSTEMS AS USUAL UP
IN THE AIR WITH MRF THO FAIRLY GD AGREEMENT WITH CANADIAN MODELS.
COOL DOWN BEING STRETCHED OUT WITH LTST RUNS BUT WET PATTERN DOES
CONTINUE.  PSBLE WET SNW CULD BE MXED IN PCPN EARLY SUN. ATTM THO
WILL JUST MENTION SHOWERS.  MEXS LOOK GD WITH SLO WAMRUP DUE TO
CLDNS AND PCPN.

WL CANCEL WIND ADVSRY AT 4PM.

.DSM...NONE

FORSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
327 PM CDT THU APR 18 2002

LATE REPORTS FROM 4/17-4/18 EVENT

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1005 PM    3 W DEDHAM                IA   1 INCH HAIL
04/17/02   CARROLL                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

1008 PM    1 W MANNING               IA   1 INCH HAIL
04/17/02   CARROLL                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

1200 AM    HAVELOCK                  IA   1 INCH HAIL
04/18/02   POCAHONTAS                     REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
520 PM CDT THU APR 18 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0513 PM    1 E RANDALL               IA   1 INCH HAIL
04/18/02   HAMILTON                       REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.