Severe Thunderstorm Warning 319, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
318 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2002

DAYS 1-2...

SEVERAL FEATURES TO INFLUENCE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  FOR THE
IMMEDIATE FUTURE, OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWEST FROM EARLY
MORNING MCS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAS PUSHED INTO THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA.  NEW TSRA DEVELOPMENT MAY FIRE SOUTH FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  ELSEWHERE,
ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AS SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED
WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 AND SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED
IN THE 60S.  MORNING U/A ANALYSIS INDICATING AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WITH 90 KT SOUTHERN BRANCH JET NOSING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.

THINK THAT 30KM MM5, 12Z RUN, HAD THE BEST SOLUTION IN FORMING
RATHER STOUT MCS IN NORTHEAST COLORADO, SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS, AND DROPPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.  THUS, WILL BASE POPS HIGHLY ON THIS
SOLUTION WITH LIKELY NORTH AND NORTHWEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHEAST
CWA.

ON TUESDAY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE IN RECOVERY MODE FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WITH ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT AS
ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH APPROACHES IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STRENGTHENS WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

DAYS 3-7...

MID TO LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK STILL LOOKING FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES CONTINUING FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY FRIDAY AFTER WHICH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  UNTIL THAT TIME, THE LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WHERE IT HAS BEEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  WITH THIS IN MIND, WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON TO
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.  THE WEATHER
SHOULD QUIET DOWN A BIT FOR THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MOST OF
MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER FOR A FEW
DAYS.  EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MAIN BELT OF UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
SAGS BACK DOWN ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER WITH A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THINK THAT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD GET PUSHED SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WILL KEEP THE 8-10 DAY OUTLOOK THE
SAME WITH NEAR NORMAL ON BOTH THE TEMPS AND PRECIP.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   65  82  64  85 /  40  20  30  20
GCK   65  83  64  87 /  40  20  40  20
EHA   66  84  65  88 /  40  30  40  20
LBL   65  83  64  87 /  40  20  40  20
HYS   65  82  64  85 /  60  10  30  20
P28   67  82  66  86 /  20   0  20  20

.DDC...NONE.

FCSTID = 07/02