Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
319 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2002

DAYS 1-2...
U/A ANALYSIS SHOWING VERY WARM AIR IN PLACE JUST W/SW OF THE CWA AT
85H/7H LVLS THIS MORNING. 5H LVL PLACING OUR NEXT UPPER WAVE OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA. ALL MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR S/W
TROF AND AS FOR TODAY STILL EXPECTING FALLING PRESSURES ALONG THE
HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF CANADA. SHOULD
THEREFORE SEE WINDS INCREASE INTO THE WINDY CONDITIONS LATER TODAY.
AS FOR TEMPS AM STILL FAVORING A CLEARING TREND AND GIVEN THE WARM
+30C 85H TEMPS JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA TODAY BELIEVE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE WITH AFTERNOON READINGS WHILE THE
FWC/MAV LOOKS TOO LOW. ALL MODELS POINTING TOWARDS A DECENT WARMUP
IN THE MID LEVELS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. AVN/ETA/NGM ALL PROG
TEMPS AT 7H TO RANGE FROM 14-16C BY 00Z SAT IN WRN KS. ALTHOUGH 7-5H
LAPSE RATES RANGE FROM 7-9C/KM, THE WARM MID LVL TEMPS SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY SFC BASED CONVECTION AND DRY AIR PROGGED ABOVE 7H
TONIGHT ELEVATED CONVECTION NOT LOOKING GOOD EITHER FOR LATER THIS
EVENING.

MAIN EXCITEMENT ARRIVES WITH OUR COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT. ALL
MODEL PLACING FROPA ACROSS THE CWA BETWEEN 6/12Z. DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOIST CONV ALONG THIS FRONT, HOWEVER AS IT ENTERS WESTERN KS IT
WILL UNDERCUT THE WARM 16-18C 7H TEMPS WHICH MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT
TO GET/KEEP CONVECTION GOING. MODELS QPF LEANING TOWARDS A DRY FROPA
IN WESTERN KS AND CURRENTLY WILL FAVOR THIS GIVEN THE WARM AIR. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE NORTH (HYS AREA) AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OVER
THE FAR EAST (P28) ON SATURDAY. REASON BEING THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE
NEAR THE 7H BAROCLINIC ZONE SO CAP WILL BE WEAKER. STILL EVEN HERE
WILL ONLY GO WITH 20 POPS AT THIS TIME.

NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW COOL IT WILL GET SATURDAY BEHIND OUR COLD
FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CNTL PLAINS. SOUNDINGS NOT
FAVORING MUCH CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY AND DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PCPN AS WAS THE CASE WITH OUR LAST SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS
AND 85H TEMPS PROGGED OVER CWA WILL FAVOR THE WARMER NGM AND ETA
GUIDANCE OVER THE MAV.

DAYS 3-7...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY
AS PRESSURES FALL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE RIPPLING OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
EXCEEDINGLY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN KANSAS, AND
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW THAT SUFFICIENT HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST WITH THE WARM FRONT TO ALLOW ANYTHING TO PENETRATE THE
INVERSION ON SUNDAY. AS SUCH, DROPPING THE POPS FOR SUNDAY SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY AND WILL ENHANCE CONVERGENCE SUFFICIENTLY THAT THERE MAY
BE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A RATHER WARM
PERIOD SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. RETROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
THE CURRENT EXTENDED REFLECTS THIS REASONING AND SEEMS REASONABLE.

THANKS FOR THE CORD AMA.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   96  61  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   96  65  78  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA   98  64  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
LBL   96  67  79  59 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   96  63  78  54 /   0  20   0   0
P28   95  69  82  62 /   0   0  20   0

.DDC...NONE.

FCSTID =18/01

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-170600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
456 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ALONG
THE HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE DEVELOPING WINDS AND WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OUTDOOR BURNING IS THEREFORE
DISCOURAGED AS ANY OPEN FLAME COULD EASILY GET OUT OF CONTROL IN A
MATTER OF MINUTES.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING WESTERN KANSAS THIS MORNING
WILL GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY. THESE EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED BE REACH SEVERE LIMITS BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
END BY 9 AM.

WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL THEN
OCCUR WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc

&&
RB