Severe Thunderstorm Warning 244, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
244 PM CDT SUN JUL 28 2002

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ALL
PERIODS.

MORNING MAPS SHOWED 120KT 250MB JET SURGING ACROSS CENTRAL BRITISH
COLUMBIA PUSHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH 70KT JET
STRETCHING FROM GJT TO THE GREAT LAKES. SIGNIFICANT COOLING WITH THE
WAVE WAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WITH 12C TEMPS OVERHEAD AND
UPSTREAM AT 700MB. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS PUSHED
RATHER MOIST AIR NORTH INTO KANSAS AT 850MB AND SURFACE LEVELS. 18Z
SURFACE MAP AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING EVIDENCE OF COLD
FRONT FROM EAR TO HLC TO LAA.

UPPER WAVE AND FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST/SOUTH RESPECTIVELY. BEST UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA BUT FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO OVERCOME WARM LAYER AROUND 700-750MB. MODELS WERE A
BIT WARM AT 500MB UPSTREAM AND ARE LIKELY TOO WARM THIS EVENING.
BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IS GREATEST AND CAP IS WEAKEST AND LIKELY POPS SEEM IN
ORDER. WILL NEED TO KEEP AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE JET CLOSE BY. WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS AND RELATIVELY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUSTIFY KEEPING HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING
INTACT. DESPITE THE WEAK FLOW, WITH CAPE VALUES PUSHING 3000 J/KG
WILL LIKELY MENTION SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

BOUNDARY SHOULD BE REINFORCED ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT AND PRECIP
OUT OF THE ZONES BY MORNING. WEAK UPSLOPE SHOULD KEEP TEMPS OUT OF
CONTROL BUT WITH MOST OF THE COOL AIR BEING SHOVED EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, HIGHS WILL NOT COOL MUCH FROM TODAY AND WILL RAISE
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. AVN SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED 850MB MOISTURE
WAY TOO HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AND KEEPS VERY MOIST AIR
OVER THIS AREA INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHOULD KEEP STRATUS/FOG IN CHECK. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S LOOK GOOD.

WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH SHOULD HELP WARM THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING. HIGHS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MID TO UPPER 90S.

DAYS 3-7...

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE FORECAST HINGES ON HOW MUCH TROUGHINESS
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER RIDGING INTO
WESTERN CANADA. KANSAS WILL BE STUCK BETWEEN COLDER AIR EAST TO HOT
AIR IN THE ROCKIES AND WEST. FIRST LOOK AT MRF SUGGESTS TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90 BASED ON FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS. KNOWN BIAS OF
MRF IS TO PROJECT TOO COOL 850 TEMPS. ALSO LOOKING AT CANADIAN MODEL
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BEFORE
TROUGHINESS IS FORECAST IN THE EAST CONUS LATER IN THE 8 TO 10 DAY
OUTLOOK. CURRENT TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY STAYS LOCKED INTO THE NORTHERN TIER U.S.
STATES WITH WEAK COOL FRONTS PROJECTED AFTER EACH SHORTWAVE TROF IN
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   67  94  67  97 /  50   0   0   0
GCK   66  92  66  96 /  40   0   0   0
EHA   65  93  66  95 /  30   0   0   0
LBL   67  92  67  96 /  40   0   0   0
HYS   67  92  66  98 /  50   0   0   0
P28   70  96  68  97 /  60  10   0   0

.DDC...NONE.

21/06