Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Dodge City, KS

July 10, 2002Pawnee County, Stafford County, Kansas

NWS Dodge City, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 10, 2002, 5:41 PM CDT for Pawnee County, Stafford County, Kansas. It was in force for 34 min. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 10, 2002, 5:41 PM CDT (22:41 UTC)
Expired: Jul 10, 2002, 6:15 PM CDT
In force: 34 min
Issued by: NWS Dodge City, KS
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Pawnee County, KS, Stafford County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where
Jul 10, 5:45 PM CDT	Hail 1	Radium, KS
Jul 10, 6:05 PM CDT	Hail 0.88	Larned, KS
Jul 10, 6:18 PM CDT	Hail 0.75	Larned, KS
Jul 10, 6:18 PM CDT	Thunderstorm Wind 52 E	Larned, KS

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 94 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1438 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -130 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1797 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -15 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 36 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

807 
WUUS53 KDDC 102241
SVRDDC
KSC145-185-102315-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
540 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
  WESTERN STAFFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 540 PM CDT...DODGE CITY DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF RADIUM...OR ABOUT 9 MILES EAST OF
  LARNED...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED
  RADIUM AT 550 PM CDT

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...
  HAIL THE SIZE OF NICKELS,
  WIND UP TO 60 MILES AN HOUR,
  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING,

STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN DODGE CITY.

LAT...LON 3825 9890 3818 9910 3801 9901 3784 9898
          3783 9874 3799 9874 3818 9881

BURGERT

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 10, 2:45 PM CDT, 2 hours 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 2:45 PM CDT, 2 hours 56 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

DAYS 1-2...

THE UPPER LOW WAS STARTING TO DIG DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY,
WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN SOUTHERN KS, AND THE TRUE COLD FRONT IN
NORTHWEST KS. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA. THE SCENARIO WE ENVISION IS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO
OKLAHOMA LATER THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, A FEW MORE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE TRUE FRONT AS IT STARTS TO MOVE TROUGH CENTRAL/SW
KS. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE LEADING
FRONT. EVEN COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY. GOING FCST SEEMS
CONSISTENT WITH THE ABOVE THINKING, SO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. THE ONLY REAL CHANGES WILL BE TO KEEP POPS GOING ALL
NIGHT TONIGHT AND NUDGE TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FOR FRIDAY.

DAYS 3-7...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A ERN CONUS TROF OVER THE
WEEKEND AND AMPLIFYING OUR WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. ON MONDAY A
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STARTS TO SLIDE BACK
WESTWARD TOWARDS OK/TX. THE 12Z AVN WAS EVEN FURTHER WEST WITH THIS
LOW BY 12Z MONDAY THAN THE MRF/ECMWF AND IF VERIFIED WOULD RETARD
THE WARMUP AND POSSIBLY BRING A SLT CHANCE FOR PCPN TO OUR ERN CWA.
AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE IS LOW BUT GIVEN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TRENDING TOWARDS SLT CHC POPS LATE TUESDAY
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OF LOW POPS IN AT THIS TIME. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENCE AND WARM TEMPS BACK INTO THE
90S THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK BUT WILL TRIM A FEW DEGREES OFF
THE ERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.

FINCH/BURGERT

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   65  92  63  88 /  30  10   0   0
GCK   65  90  60  89 /  20  10   0   0
EHA   64  90  60  89 /  30  10   0   0
LBL   65  92  62  90 /  30  10   0   0
HYS   64  89  60  88 /  20  10   0   0
P28   70  94  64  90 /  40  20   0   0

.DDC...NONE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Dodge City, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 10, 5:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Stafford	45 min
Jul 10, 6:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DDC	Pawnee	47 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.