Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWED A COUPLED JET PATTERN OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AREA FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IN THE ZONE OF MAXIMUM LIFT.  MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE 700 MB ANALYSIS FROM
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN COLORADO. DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WAS ALSO IN PLACE. SMALL WONDER THAT THIS AREA HAS SEEN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE EVENING.

THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS IS NOW HEADING EAST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  ALSO, A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS RIDING UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE LW TROUGH
AND APPEARS TO BE HELPING KICK THE MCS OVER COLORADO AND NEBRASKA
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.  A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WAS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
IMAGERY OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.  STARTING TO SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT ON
THE IR SAT LOOP OVER NEW MEXICO WITH THIS FEATURE.

AT THE SURFACE, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS EARLIER HAD BECOME STATIONARY FROM JUST NORTH OF KEHA AND
KLBL TO SOUTH OF KDDC AND KGBD.  06Z LAMP DATA AND SURFACE OBS
SHOWED 2-4 MB PRESSURE RISES EARLIER OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE SLACKENING OFF.  THE FRONT
SHOULD MAKE SOME MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION BUT SHOULD GET HUNG UP
IN THE PANHANDLES TODAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT.

CURRENT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AND
HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS. THINK WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION EARLY TODAY AS THE LEADING SHORTWAVE MOVES PAST AND
THEN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT ONE
APPROACHES.  WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGH CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS TONIGHT OVER ALL BUT
THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONTAL LIFT AND UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL BE THE LOWEST.  TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL DEPEND ON
WHERE AND HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE WILL BE.  BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATING YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS, IT APPEARS THAT THE GOING FORECAST FOR HIGHS TODAY AROUND
70 IN MOST AREAS WITH AROUND 80 IN THE KP28 AREA STILL LOOKS GOOD.
TONIGHTS LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S MOST AREAS WITH THE
SOUTHEAST BEING THE WARMEST.

ON WEDNESDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE SURFACE FRONT SLIDING FARTHER SOUTH.  THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE DRYING OUT AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN SO THINK
PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY STILL LOOKS GOOD.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA
IN THE MORNING BUT LOOKS LIKE BEST MEAN RH AND UVVS WILL BE TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH BY 12Z SO WILL LEAVE DRY FORECAST GOING IN THAT AREA.
WITH MORE INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY HAVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPERATURES A
CATEGORY OR SO ACROSS THE BOARD.

DAYS 3-7...

NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   72  52  79  54 /  50  70   0   0
GCK   70  50  78  52 /  50  70   0   0
EHA   71  51  77  53 /  50  70   0   0
LBL   72  51  79  53 /  50  70   0   0
HYS   69  51  78  54 /  50  50   0   0
P28   80  58  78  57 /  40  80   0   0

.DDC...NONE.

GERARD/FINCH