Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
253 PM CDT MON JUN 3 2002

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES FOR
NEARLY ALL PERIODS.

MORNING UPPER AIR MAPS DEPICTED SCREAMING 250MB JET FOR EARLY JUNE
CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH 150KT AIRREPS. SEVERAL JET
CORES SURGING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST UPPER TROF WITH BEST
CORE FROM CENTRAL BAJA TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO USHERING SUBSTANTIAL
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 700MB TEMPS REMAINED
QUITE WARM OVER THE CWA WITH 15C AT DDC BUT 10C ISOTHERM WAS NOT VAR
TO THE NORTH IN WESTERN NEBRASKA. 850MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED
WEST AND NORTHEAST FROM A LOW NEAR KGLD WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
THE VICINITY. LATE MORNING SURFACE MAP HAD THE FRONT FROM OMA TO GCK
THEN BACK NORTHWEST TO NEAR CYS. AVN AND ETA MODELS WILL BE FAVORED
AGAIN THIS CYCLE WITH NGM SEEMINGLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL
FEATURES WITH TIME. 19Z 3HR PRESSURE RISE MAX HAD SHIFTED EAST INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH FALLING PRESSURE TRENDS OVER EASTERN COLORADO.

SUBTROPICAL PLUME HAS KEPT SURFACE HEATING IN CHECK THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 19Z TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3 OF
THE ZONES. SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS HARD TO BE
REALIZED WITH CAP HOLDING STRONG. IHOP 4KM MM5 TRIES TO BREAK OUT
PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ITS SURFACE TEMPS THERE ARE
AROUND 100F. EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM OVER EASTERN
COLORADO (WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 50 WEST TO THE ROCKIES)
AND MOVE ENE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES TONIGHT. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE IN THE NORTH ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL JET PICKS UP AND ALONG/NORTH OF THE 10C 700MB ISOTHERM. SEVERE
STORM THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HAIL AND A FEW DOWNBURSTS BUT AM
NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT LOTS OF SEVERE REPORTS DUE TO THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS AROUND 140 PERCENT OF
NORMAL). WILL MENTION SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS IN MIND. WITH
ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LOWS MAY HAVE A HARD TIME DROPPING FAR
BUT GOING NUMBERS LOOK PRETTY GOOD.

COOL OUTFLOW BEHIND THE STORMS SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH ALL THE
ZONES BY MID MORNING. WITH THE UPPER TROF MIGRATING EAST INTO THE
ROCKIES, EXPECT A FEW WEAK WAVES TO PASS OVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WILL SHOTGUN MID RANGE POPS FOR THIS.
WITH ENOUGH MIXING FROM OVERNIGHT AND DAYTIME RAINFALL WILL GO WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR TEMPS FROM 70 TO 82 NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.

WITH FRONT FARTHER SOUTH, SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. BEST CHANCES, NEAREST
THE FRONT, SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BASICALLY FLIP-FLOP THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM TONIGHT. FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF
THE ZONES BY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF.
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S SEEM REASONABLE.

DAYS 3-7...

UKMO AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DROP UPPER SYSTEM INTO BAJA AREA BY 00Z
THURSDAY WHILE AVN MOVES SYSTEM ACROSS TX/OK.  WILL PROBABLY NOT
FOLLOW AVN MUCH.  SHOULD WARM UP BY THURSDAY AS JET STAY WELL
NORTH.  THEN NEXT FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE SUNDAYISH.  GOING FORECAST
ALREADY HAS A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON FORECAST AND WILL ONLY MAKE A
FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   62  73  52  75 /  50  50  50   0
GCK   58  71  51  75 /  70  50  30   0
EHA   60  73  50  77 /  50  50  50   0
LBL   60  75  51  76 /  50  50  50   0
HYS   58  71  50  74 /  70  50  30   0
P28   68  81  56  76 /  30  50  70   0

.DDC...NONE.

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