Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
145 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

VERY COLD AIR ALOFT FOR LATE MAY, WEAK CAPPING DUE TO WEAK, NARROW
BAND OF WESTERLIES, AND AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
KS. THE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY 4 PM AND THEN SLOWLY
EVOLVE INTO A LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS OVERNIGHT FURTHER EAST. SO
THE HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM DDC TO HAYS AND POINTS EAST
PER GOING FCST. THE UPPER LOW OVER BAJA WILL WOBBLE EAST INTO
KANSAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND AMPLE
MOISTURE, AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD BET. THE LOCATION OF
BOUNDARIES FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN
WHERE CONVECTION FIRES MONDAY. CURRENT FCST LOOKS BASICALLY ON TRACK
WITH POPS AND TEMPS, AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED.

DAYS 3-7...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD RIDGE OVER EASTERN ROCKIES MID WEEK BEFORE
IT BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEKEND. MAY BE A POSSIBILITY OF TSRA
OVER FAR WESTERN GROUPS FRIDAY-SATURDAY WITH LATE DAY STORMS IN
EASTERN COLORADO. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THOSE DAYS DRY.
WILL INTRO CHANCE OF TSRA FOR SUNDAY WITH RIDGE BREAKING DOWN.  LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NOT LOOKING TOO IMPRESSIVE ON AVN HOWEVER.

FINCH/15

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   60  82  58  81 /  40  30  40  10
GCK   56  82  57  81 /  30  30  30  10
EHA   56  84  55  81 /  30  30  30  10
LBL   56  85  57  81 /  30  30  30  10
HYS   59  81  59  81 /  40  30  40  10
P28   62  82  62  82 /  50  40  40  20

.DDC...NONE.

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-270600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1120 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

...STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL BECOME MODERATE TO HIGHLY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE DRYLINE WILL PUSH
INTO WEST CENTRAL KANSAS BY MID-AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AFTER 3 PM ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GARDEN CITY TO WAKEENEY, AND THEN MOVE TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 20 MPH. DURING THE EVENING, THE
STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO
HAYS, JETMORE AND DODGE CITY. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD QUICKLY
INSURE THAT SPOTTERS ARE AVAILABLE. THEY MAY BE NEEDED FOR RELATIVELY
LONG PERIODS OF TIME FROM THIS AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DDC

FINCH