Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
158 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2002

DAYS 1-2...
-23C 5H TROF LOCATED OVER UT AT 00Z FRI WITH SEVERAL WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THIS TROF. ONE WAS CROSSING CO EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE
ANOTHER WAS MOVING INTO THE BASE OF OUR 5H TROF. IN THE LOWER LVLS
85H LOW WAS PLACED IN NE CO WITH GOOD WAA AND MOIST ADV PRESENT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF TX/WRN OK AND SW KS. PROFILERS THIS MORNING
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE 85H BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SW KS WAS UNDERGOING
FGEN. LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE PANHANDLE OF TX AND WRN OK
EARLY THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE INHIBITING WIDESPREAD PCPN OVER SW
KANSAS AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER SCT STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER SW
KS. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING IN AREA OF STRONG WAA AND
AHEAD OF OUR FIRST VORT LOBE CURRENTLY EXITING ERN CO. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE MOVING NE INTO SW NE BY 12Z SO THIS SCT CONVECTION SHOULD
BE EXITING THE CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK. PCPN HOWEVER WILL LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AS ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.

BASED ON INITIALIZATION ALL MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE UTAH
UPPER TROF WELL AND BRINGS THIS WAVE INTO THE CNTL PLAINS LATER
TODAY. ALL MODELS HOWEVER DID A POOR JOB INITIALIZING WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR AT 8H JUST ABOVE THE COOL POOL BASED ON
DDC 00Z SOUNDING. GIVEN MORE MOISTURE PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IMPROVING DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WAVE CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN KS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SO NO BIG
DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED. ALSO DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO LOWER
POPS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE CWA ALTHOUGH LOOKS LIKE PCPN WILL MAINLY BE
LIGHT AND MAY BE MAINLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT UNTIL LATE.

CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL COME LATE TODAY IN THE WEST AND EARLY
EVENING IN THE EAST AS THE S/W TROF CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. ALL
MODELS AGREE WITH WAVE EXITING CWA AROUND 6Z. A REENFORCEMENT OF COLD
AIR ARRIVING LATER TODAY PRIOR TO THE S/W TROF SHOULD ALLOW FOR
INCREASED FGEN OVER THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. MOISTURE STILL
LOOKS TO BE MORE ABUNDANT OVER THE EAST AND WITH A LLJ OVER WRN OK
DEVELOPING EARLY TONIGHT PCPN CHANCES AND THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS BEST IN OUR SE CWA. HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE HERE. AS FOR
POPS OVERNIGHT WILL GO WITH CHC POPS OVER NW CWA DUE TO PCPN ENDING
HERE EARLIEST HERE AND KEEP LIKELY POPS FURTHER EAST.

SFC HIGH THEN BUILDS QUICKLY INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS OUR S/W TROF
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS OUR HIGH BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. A NICE DAY IS
IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS SFC WINDS SWING AROUND BACK TO THE SOUTH.
SFC WINDS STILL SHOWING SOME CAA PRESENT IN THE ERN 1/2 OF THE CWA
BUT AS A LEE TROF DEVELOPS THE WRN 1/2 SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM UP MORE
AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING. WILL LEAN TOWARDS 85H TEMPS AS A
GUIDE FOR TEMPS ON SAT. THIS PLACES LOW TO MID 70S IN THE EAST AND
NEAR 80 POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST.

DAYS 3-7...
NO CHANGES EXPECTED THIS MORNING.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   56  45  75  52 /  70  60   0   0
GCK   56  43  77  50 /  70  60   0   0
EHA   56  46  78  51 /  60  60   0   0
LBL   61  46  78  52 /  70  60   0   0
HYS   54  44  73  51 /  70  60   0   0
P28   60  47  73  55 /  70  80   0   0

.DDC...NONE.

FCSTID = 18/08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
958 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0910 PM    16S MEADE                      KS   0.88 IN HAIL
05/23/02   MEADE                          REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER

KSZ080-081-087>090-240500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1127 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 323 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

THE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES OF
MEADE...CLARK...COMANCHE...KIOWA...PRATT AND BARBER.  WHILE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE AT:
HTTP://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc

&&

GERARD