Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE
1000 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2002

...VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE CWA...

12Z SOUNDINGS AT PBZ AND ILN INDICATING ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR TODAY. 35 KT FLOW AT 850 DENOTED AT PBZ...AND 40-45 KT LAYER
BETWEEN 950 AND 850 MB. CAPES ALSO QUITE HIGH...IN EXCESS OF 2500
J/KG AT PBZ...AND 3000 AT LWX. IT WAS A BIT LOWER AT ILN...1600.
ALSO OF INTEREST IS DRIER AIR SNEAKING IN AT MID LEVELS NOTED ON ILN
AND PBZ SOUNDINGS. AS THIS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD
CWA...DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED...WITH WINDS ALREADY
FAIRLY STRONG IN THE LOW LEVELS. THEREFORE...ONGOING SPS FOR SLIGHT
RISK WL CONTINUE...MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ALSO HAIL.
LOOKS LIKE 2 MAIN FOCI FOR SEVERE WX...WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE PORTIONS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN AGAIN JUST BEFORE DUSK THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR NW
AREAS CLOSER TO COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH INSTABILITY
PRESENT...SCATD ACTIVITY CAN GO AT ANY TIME.

OTHER CONCERN IS HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...ALREADY HAD IN EXCESS OF 3
IN ACROSS NW MTNS...AND IN OTHER ISOLATED AREAS. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH RATHER BRISKLY...WL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY
POTENTIAL TRAINING ACROSS NW AREAS FOR POSS FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE.

OTRW...WL MAKE SOME WORDING ADJUSTMENTS IN THE ZONES AND MINOR
TWEAKING TO THE DATABASE.

.CTP...SPS - SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THIS
       AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KL

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-052200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1104 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2002

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL COMBINE WITH A
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM AND POSSIBLY BECOME
SEVERE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS
BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH...AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL IN A FEW STORMS. SOME
OF THE STORMS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN FALLING AT OVER AN INCH PER HOUR. RAINFALL OF THIS
INTENSITY COULD QUICKLY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SMALL
STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

KL

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/CTP

PAZ056>059-063>066-060145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
248 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2002

...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN MAY MOVE INTO LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY...

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA FOR
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THIS THREAT COULD SHIFT
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.  A
WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT...AND SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR
SOUTH.  STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.  THIS STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS COULD PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

SHOULD THIS THREAT INCREASE A FLOOD WARNING MAY BE ISSUED LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

RG/KL

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-060100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
320 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2002

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...

MCKEAN...SOMERSET...WARREN...CLEARFIELD...CAMERON...CAMBRIA...POTTER
AND ELK.

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR EXISTS THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF PENNSYLVANIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

REMEMBER THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. BE PREPARED FOR WIND
GUSTS 58 MPH OR STRONGER AND HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND
LARGER.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

DEVOIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
406 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0544 PM    13 S BRADFORD             PA   .75 INCH HAIL
06/04/02   MCKEAN                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

0630 PM    CLEARFIELD                PA   FLOOD
06/04/02   CLEARFIELD                     MINOR FLOODING OF ROADS
                                          LIGHTNING STRIKES CAUSING
                                          STRUCTURE FIRES. REPORTED
                                          BY LAW ENFORCEMENT