Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
720 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT TO ENTER WESTERN PA IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PREFRONTAL VAD WIND PROFILES QUITE
IMPRESSIVE TO THE WEST...SHOWING 50KT SPEED SHEAR FROM SFC TO 7KFT
AT ILN...AND 18Z MODELS FCST LL JET AND SIMILAR LL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL PA AS FRONT MOVES THRU LATER TONIGHT. ALSO OF NOTE IS
BACKING OF SFC WIND FLOW ACROSS WESTERN PA DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...SUPPORTING TORNADO THREAT AS FRONT APPROACHING NW PA LATE
THIS EVENING.

.CTP...
PA...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR MCKEAN WARREN AND ELK.

FITZGERALD

PREV AFD FOLLOWS
===================================================================
SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTING THROUGH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY ATTM HAS LEAD TO
BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL FILL IN AGAIN LATER THIS EVE AS SECOND WAVE/COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY MOVES EAST.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THIS SECOND FRONT TO MOVE NE THROUGH WRN CWA LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHOWERS AFFECTING ERN PARTS OF
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THESE FIRST TWO TROFS ARE THE FIRST SHOTS OF COLDER AIR AHEAD OF AN
UPR TROF FORECAST TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS NERN U.S. BY MID WEEK.
AS ADDITIONAL WAVES DROP INTO THE DEVELOPING UPR TROF CLOUDY/
SHOWERY PD IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION. AS SUCH CLOUDY VETERANS DAY
ON TAP TOMORROW AS SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WITH NUMEROUS WAVES ALONG
IT CROSSES CWA.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH NOSES NWD INTO PA ON TUE
GIVING A BRIEF DRY PD. HOWEVER ON WED...ENERGY ASSCD WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROF WILL SUPPORT A SERIES OF SFC WAVES MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT STALLED ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST. THIS IF FCST TO
SPREAD PCPN NWD ALONG THE MID ATLC. 850 MB ZERO LINE PUSHES TO
CENTRAL PA BY WED MORNING CONTINUING POSS OF SNOW/WET SNOW MIXED IN
WITH RAIN ESP OVER CENTRAL PA MTNS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY NEW GUIDANCE
THAT HAD DOWNPLAYED THIS POSSIBILITY THUS HAVE KEPT WITH CONTINUITY
ON THIS MATTER.

A WEAKENING FRONT MOVES INTO PA FRI WITH DRY WX EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEKEND ATTM.

.CTP...
PA...NONE.

GARTNER

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-110030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
526 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT...IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...WILL MOVE
THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
DURING THE MID DAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...GENERALLY TO THE
EAST OF INTERSTATE 81.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL FORM OVER THE CAROLINAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL HAVE FILTERED INTO
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TO GIVE THE CHANCE OF A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
WET SNOW BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING...AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FITZGERALD

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-110515-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
517 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
GREATEST THREAT PERIOD WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM MIDNIGHT TO 3 AM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/CTP

FITZGERALD

PAZ004-005-010-110500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
730 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

ELK...MCKEAN AND WARREN.

A TORNADO WATCH IS EFFECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED COUNTIES. SEVERE
STORMS OVER OHIO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY RACE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS OF PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING...AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.

THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...TORNADOES... TORRENTIAL RAINS...HAIL...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTING IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. THE STORMS HAVE A
HISTORY OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER.

PERSONS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IF
THREATENING WEATHER OCCURS...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED. THIS IS A
DANGEROUS SITUATION...AS SOME STORMS WILL BE MOVING OVER 50
MPH...AND WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CHANGING QUICKLY.

LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ON NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR FAVORITE TV AND RADIO STATION.

MARTIN