Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
300 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2002

THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 18Z FRIDAY.  THIS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY IN
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS RUN. THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FOR OUR AREA WILL BE BETWEEN 03Z-09Z. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT...AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MAX AFTERNOON HEATING. PWATS ARE STILL ABOVE 2
IN...BUT THE STORMS ARE MOVING AT A DECENT PACE THIS AFTERNOON DUE
TO THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF RECENT
FLOODING IN OUR AREA...WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IN THE ZONES OVERNIGHT. BEYOND TONIGHT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN.  WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PREFER
THE AVN TEMPS TO THE ETA...ETA TEMPS TOO WARM ON DAY 2.

EXTENDED FORECAST...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ENTER THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND WE MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS OUT WEST. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE DRY...BASED ON THE PROGGED TRACK OF ISIDORE.
CURRENT TRACK BRINGS ISIDORE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.  BEYOND THIS...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINITY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION VERY CLOSELY.

CRP BU 073/087 065/087 066 4300
VCT BU 070/087 062/086 060 4200
LRD BU 074/088 067/088 066 3-00

MARINE...FAIRLY QUIET OVER CRP MARINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST OF
CONVECTION IS BEYOND 60 NM.  WILL FORECAST PREFRONTAL TROUGH/FRONT
THROUGH MARINE WATERS JUST AFTER 1200 UTC WITH LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF FRONT.  WILL CONTINUE SCEC TONIGHT
WITH WINDS LIKELY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER FROPA.  EXPECT MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY...AND THEN STRENGTHEN AS ISIDORE MOVES INTO THE GULF.
PROJECTED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH NEXT WEEK SO IF ISIDORE
PROVIDES ANY SORT OF ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT...WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL
WITH SOME COASTAL FLOODING.

.CRP...NONE

78/72

TXZ230>234-240>247-200000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
400 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2002

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND COASTAL
BEND AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN AT LESS THAN 1 INCH.

DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY
CREATE SOME BRIEF LOCALIZE FLOODING. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY
TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

TXZ230>234-240>247-200000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
400 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2002

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FRIDAY MORNING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AND COASTAL
BEND AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN AT LESS THAN 1 INCH.

DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY
CREATE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY
TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.