Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
830 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2002

LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AT SUNSET WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE OVERNIGHT...DRAGGING ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE REGION IN THE PROCESS.

WHILE WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK IS IN THE FAVORED RR QUAD
OF H25 JET TONIGHT...THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE WEAK AND WE HAVE NOW LOST
OUR DIURNAL ASSISTANCE. RUC GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS CAPES IN THE RANGE OF
200-400 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS FOUND OVER THE WRN SOUTHERN TIER.

CURRENT LAPS/MSAS ANALYSES SHOW TDS IN THE LOW-MID 50S ACROSS
WRN NEW YORK AT PRESSTIME...BUT LIS REMAIN PATHETIC AT +4 TO +10.
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL KNOCK THESE
VALUES DOWN...WITH RUC SUGGESTING -2 OR SO VALUES AT FRONTAL PASSAGE
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM.

CURRENT KCLE RADAR SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE BOW SEGMENT WITHIN A LINE OF
CONVECTION THAT IS CROSSING CENTRAL LAKE ERIE...NORTH OF ERIE, PA.
THIS SPECIFIC FEATURE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR MARINE CONCERNS AND
POSSIBLY FOR CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY AS WE NEAR 01Z.

THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE VERY NICE...AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY TO SET THE STAGE
FOR PLENTY OF SUN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. ENJOY

ZONES WILL BE SENT A LITTLE EARLY FOR OBVIOUS REASONS.

.BUF...NONE.

RSH