Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
250 PM CDT SUN OCT 20 2002

.SHORT TERM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS CONTINUED ON ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION AND IS CURRENTLY OVER ARKANSAS.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM AR THROUGH THE TX HILL COUNTRY...WHILE A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LA THROUGH THE WEST GULF OF MEX WATERS AND BACK
ON SHORE NEAR BRO.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY...
ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE UNIFORM AND SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS
WEAKENING BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE RRQ OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
AID IN UVV TONIGHT. PLUS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 IN...ADEQUATE
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
AVN AND ETA BOTH HAVE PRECIP. TONIGHT FOR THE AREA...HOWEVER...BY
MONDAY THE ETA KEEPS MOST OF THE PRECIP TO THE NORTH. THE AVN HAS
STRONGER OVERRUNNING/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO THE NORTH AS WELL AS MORE
PRECIP. BELIEVE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE MORNING AS GREATEST UVV
SHIFTS FROM DEPSOTX TO LA BY MON. NIGHT. MODELS TRENDING DRIER FOR
TUES...WILL ADJUST ZONES TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE.

.EXTENDED...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN U.S. IN
THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REACHING TEXAS BY FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY WHEN THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO SOUTH
TEXAS...WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL REACH DEPSOTX IS STILL IN QUESTION.
OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE WEEK SEEMS RELATIVELY DRY.

.MARINE DISCUSSION...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID
WEEK...AS MOIST GULF AIR IS DESTABILIZED BY CONDITIONS ALOFT.  THE
AVN IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL AREAL COVERAGE AND AMOUNT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SEAS
MODERATE AS WELL.  NO FLAGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.  BY MID
WEEK A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...AND THE
AVN THEN DEVELOPS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN EAST TEXAS LATE
IN THE WEEK.  IF THIS VERIFIES...WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE LOWER
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES STILL APPEAR MARGINAL AT THIS POINT.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
BRO EE 072/085 072/086 072 50/30/20/20/00
HRL EE 070/085 070/086 071 50/30/20/20/00
MFE EE 070/086 070/087 070 50/30/20/20/00
RGC EE 069/086 068/088 068 50/30/20/20/00
SPI EE 076/081 074/080 075 30/20/20/20/00

SYNOPTIC...63
AVIATION-MARINE-MESO...54

INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

.BRO...NONE.

TXZ248>257-211100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
535 PM CDT SUN OCT 20 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...PRODUCING TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME OVER HIDALGO...WILLACY AND
CAMERON COUNTIES. EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ASKED TO MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CLOSELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.