Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Brownsville, TX

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
220 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2002

A VERY INTERESTING WEATHER SCENARIO EARLY THIS MORNING...AS AN MCS
SHOT DOWN THE COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL TX LATE LAST NIGHT. HEAVY RAINS WERE REPORTED
OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH FLOODING REPORTED ON
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. BROWNSVILLE RADAR ESTIMATED BETWEEN 2 AND 4
INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...WITH ONLY A
TRACE AT BROWNSVILLE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS OVER DUVAL AND MCMULLEN COUNTIES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AND
EAST TOWARD DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WIND PROFILES SUGGEST ORGANIZED
MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
BEING HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THE DECAYING MCS OVER THE LOWER
TEXAS WATERS HAS KEPT CLOUD COVER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION....SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE
IMMEDIATE COAST WILL BE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALL SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WESTWARD DRIFT OF
THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IN PLACE OVER THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE
STEERED INTO THE AREA. LATEST MODEL DATA SHOWING INCREASING PWATS
THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. WILL KEEP THE
CURRENT FORECAST INTACT WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PCPN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIODS...WHILE DROPPING TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO
COME IN LINE WITH LATEST MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO PCPN/CLOUD COVER.

BRO 077/092 077/091 076 20/30/30/30/20
HRL 076/094 076/093 075 20/30/30/30/20
MFE 078/095 077/095 076 20/30/30/30/20
RGC 075/099 076/099 075 30/30/30/30/20
SPI 081/088 081/087 080 20/30/30/30/20

SYNOPTIC...MCGUIRE.55
AVIATION-MARINE...MILLER.54
MESO...MARTINEZ

INTERNET ADDRESS...WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

.BRO...NONE.

TXZ248>257-272200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1110 AM CDT THU JUN 27 2002

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
TEXAS COASTLINE WILL GENERATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
COASTAL PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.  LATE THIS MORNING...MOST
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
LOWER TEXAS COASTLINE.  THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT
THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF CAMERON...
WILLACY AND KENEDY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
FURTHER WEST OVER HIDALGO...BROOKS...JIM HOGG...STARR AND ZAPATA
COUNTIES AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES SOUTH FROM THE BIG BEND
AREA ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY...
ISOLATED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...
FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
FURTHER WEST AWAY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AFTER
MONDAY...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY DIMINISH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS
CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

SPEECE

TXZ248>257-280100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
100 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2002

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.