Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
200 PM MDT TUE AUG 27 2002

MAIN QUESTION THIS EVENING IS WILL WE POP THE CAP OVER THE PLAINS.
CURRENT THINKING SAYS YES.  AFTER MORNING STRATUS...TEMPS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO WARM BUT HAVE SHOWN AN ACCELERATION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  TEMPS NEED TO GET TO ABOUT 84...BUT WITH EXISTING
CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE FOOTHILLS 82 SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BREAK THROUGH.  ALSO EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS WITH CAPES NEAR 2000
J/KG.  LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS MOST COMMON BUT CANT RULE OUT A
TORNADO OR TWO WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND LOW LCL.
WITH LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE MONUMENT RIDGE SOUTH AND EAST OF DENVER AS STORMS DRIFT
SOUTHEAST ALONG LOW/MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE.  THERE IS ALSO A THREAT
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH P.W. APPROACHING AN INCH AND TRAINING OF
SOME CELLS.  WILL MENTION SOME FOG OVER THE MONUMENT RIDGE WITH
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT EXCEPT AIRMASS SHOULD EVEN BE SLIGHTLY
MORE UNSTABLE.  BEST THREAT AGAIN IN THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE
PLAINS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS TO REACH THE NORTHEAST
CORNER AS AIRMASS IS MORE CAPPED OUT THAT WAY.  STILL PRETTY DRY IN
THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS SO ONLY ISOLATED LESS INTENSE STORMS WEST OF
THE FRONT RANGE.

ON THURSDAY...AIRMASS APPEARS TO DRY SLIGHTLY BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR
STORMS IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING
EASTWARD BY EVENING.  TEMPS WARMING WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COMING
IN.  BY FRIDAY...THE WEATHER DRIES OUT EVEN MORE SO WILL ONLY
MENTION ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS KEEP A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SO CANT RULE OUT SOME MOISTURE WITH SLIGHT
RISK OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.  THEN WE SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IF MRF IS RIGHT BRINGING DRIER WESTERLY FLOW AS SHORT
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.

BARJENBRUCH

.DEN...NONE.

COZ030>051-272000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1045 AM MDT TUE AUG 27 2002

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE  BOULDER     BROOMFIELD  CLEAR CREEK  DENVER
DOUGLAS   ELBERT    GILPIN      GRAND       JACKSON      JEFFERSON
LARIMER   LINCOLN   LOGAN       MORGAN      PARK         PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK  SUMMIT    WASHINGTON  WELD

SYNOPSIS:  A PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES IS MAINTAINING THE SETUP FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO TODAY.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING BECAUSE OF
LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS.  CONTINUING MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND HEATING FROM THE MIDDAY SUN IS GOING TO CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTBILIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SINCE TODAYS MOIST AIRMASS EXTENDS ALL THE WAY WEST TO THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS...THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS WILL
BE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AFTERNOONS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  AFTER STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS IS GOING TO BE HEAVY RAINS...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  IF THE THUNERSTORMS MOVE
SLOWLY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
TIME PERIODS OF 30 MINUTES OR LESS.  STREET FLOODING MAY BECOME A
PROBLEM.

THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THESE HEAVY RAINSHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND EASTWARD TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  AREAS EAST OF A
GREELEY TO LIMON LINE WILL HAVE A LOWER PROBABILITY OF HEAVY
RAINSHOWERS...BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  LARGE
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
ADJACENT PLAINS AFTER 3 PM FOR REPORTS OF HAIL OR FLOODING.

DRIER AIR IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP.  THESE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

THE OUTLOOK FOR WEDESDAY CALLS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON THE PLAINS...INCLUDING THE FRONT RANGE
URBAN CORRIDOR.  THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCAL FLOODING.  A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

DANKERS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1105 AM MDT TUE AUG 27 2002

...PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT FOR AUGUST 27 2002...

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1045 PM    FORT COLLINS              CO   1.25 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LARIMER

1059 PM    3 NE FORT COLLINS         CO   1.25 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LARIMER

1100 PM    7 NE FORT COLLINS         CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LARIMER

1100 PM    7 NE FORT COLLINS         CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LARIMER

1100 PM    2 ENE NUNN                CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   WELD

0214 AM    2 E ELIZABETH             CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/27/02   ELBERT

JK

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1136 AM MDT TUE AUG 27 2002

...PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT FOR AUGUST 26 AND 27 2002...

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0846 PM    3 N CROOK                 CO   0.75 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LOGAN

0913 PM    10 N COPE                 CO   0.75 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   WASHINGTON

0915 PM    4 E HAXTUN                CO   NON TSTM WIND GUST
08/26/02   PHILLIPS                       60 MPH MEASURED BY
                                          SPOTTER

1045 PM    FORT COLLINS              CO   1.25 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LARIMER

1052 PM    NW FORT COLLINS           CO   0.75 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LARIMER

1056 PM    1 W FORT COLLINS          CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LARIMER

1059 PM    8 NNW CARR                CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LARIMER                        ON STATE LINE

1059 PM    3 NE FORT COLLINS         CO   1.25 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LARIMER

1100 PM    7 NE FORT COLLINS         CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LARIMER

1100 PM    7 NE FORT COLLINS         CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LARIMER

1100 PM    2 ENE NUNN                CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   WELD

0214 AM    2 E ELIZABETH             CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/27/02   ELBERT

JK

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1229 PM MDT TUE AUG 27 2002

...PRELIMINARY STORM REPORT FOR AUGUST 26 AND 27 2002...

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0846 PM    3 N CROOK                 CO   0.75 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LOGAN

0913 PM    10 N COPE                 CO   0.75 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   WASHINGTON

0915 PM    4 E HAXTUN                CO   NON TSTM WIND GUST
08/26/02   PHILLIPS                       60 MPH MEASURED BY
                                          SPOTTER

1030 PM    2 NW FORT COLLINS         CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LARIMER

1045 PM    FORT COLLINS              CO   1.25 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LARIMER

1052 PM    NW FORT COLLINS           CO   0.75 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LARIMER

1056 PM    1 W FORT COLLINS          CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LARIMER

1059 PM    8 NW CARR                CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LARIMER                        ON STATE LINE

1059 PM    3 NE FORT COLLINS         CO   1.25 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LARIMER

1100 PM    7 NE FORT COLLINS         CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LARIMER

1100 PM    7 NE FORT COLLINS         CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   LARIMER

1100 PM    2 GENE NUNN                CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/26/02   WELD

0214 AM    2 E ELIZABETH             CO   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/27/02   ELBERT

JK