Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
240 AM MDT WED JUL 10 2002

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: GOT A FEW STORMS TO FIRE ALONG CONVERGING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVERNIGHT...BUT THINGS HAVE NOW SETTLED DOWN.
SECONDARY SURGE MOVING THRU DEN ATTM WITH SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE
BASED MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH ACROSS MONTANNA AND NRN WY WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WILL KEEP A WEAK NE-E
LOW LVL FLOW FOR TODAY. AMS WILL BE CAPPED TODAY OVER THE PLAINS
WITH THETA-E RIDGE DISPLACED WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY BEHIND FRONT AS 700MB TEMPS DOWN
TO AROUND +14C. WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH NO CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS. ENTREKIN

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION: STG H5 RDG WL RATTLE ARND THE UPR GRT
BASIN THE NXT SVRL DAYS.  A VERY STG...COLD (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR)
S/W WL PLOW THRU THE UPR MIDWEST WED AND THURS AND IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYS...STG CAA WL CONT OVR KS AND NEBR.  OVR OUR AREA...DP NLY
FLOW IS PROGGED TO CONT THRU THE DAY FRI.  00Z AVN KPS THE COOL...
STBL AIR ACRS THE PLAINS INTO FRI EVE...WHICH REPRESENTS A LTL
SLOWER SOLN THAN THE PAST FEW RUNS.  IN FACT...A REINFORCING SURGE
CAN BE INFERED ON SOME OF THE PLAN VIEWS ELY FRI MRNG. AVN MOS GNDC
HAS A HIGH OF 80 IN DENVER AS A RESULT.  BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTANTLY TOO COOL WITH TEMPS THE PAST SVRL DAYS.  A FEW DAYS
AGO...AVN WAS ADVERTIZING TEMPS IN THE LWR 80S ACRS THE ERN PLAINS
FOR TUES.  AKRON WAS 97 YESTERDAY...SO MDL PERFORMANCE WRT TEMPS
HASNT BEEN TOO STELLAR.  WL GO WITH UPR 80S-LWR 90S ACRS THE FNT
RANGE WITH SOME MID 80S FOR THE FAR NERN CORNER.  MSTR WL BE NRLY
GONE...PW/S OF UNDER A HALF INCH ALG WITH STBL AIR BLO H5 EQUATES
NICELY TO THE CURRENT DRY FCST SO NO CHGS TO POPS PLANNED.  WL INCRS
AFTN CLDS TO PTLY CLDY ACRS HIGH FRI COUNTRY THO.

SAT AND BYND...VRY LTL CHGS TO THE OVRALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU THE
ENTIRE FCST PD.  A NRLY CONTINUOUS FEED OF MSTR FM THE EAST WL
STREAM INTO AZ/NEW MEXICO THE NEXT SVRL DAYS...BUT IT APPEARS THIS
CWFA WL RMN UNDER DRY N-NWLY FLOW ALF.  STILL NOT CRAZY ABT DRY FCST
OMTNS THRU THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD. EVEN THO MDLS ARE DRY...CLIMO
DOESNT SUPPORT 5 DRY DAYS IN A ROW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WL LET LTR SHIFTS PONDER THIS AND WL JUST RAISE HIGH TEMPS
OMTNS IN UPCOMING ZFP...BUT OTWS LV FCST AS IS. 46

.DEN...NONE

COZ030>051-102000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
1103 AM MDT WED JUL 10 2002

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COLORADO COUNTIES

ADAMS     ARAPAHOE  BOULDER     BROOMFIELD  CLEAR CREEK  DENVER
DOUGLAS   ELBERT    GILPIN      GRAND       JACKSON      JEFFERSON
LARIMER   LINCOLN   LOGAN       MORGAN      PARK         PHILLIPS
SEDGWICK  SUMMIT    WASHINGTON  WELD

SYNOPSIS:  CURRENTLY...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS COVERING THE
PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT BUT
THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS
...ADJACENT PLAINS...AND PALMER RIDGE.  THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE EASTERLY OR UPSLOPE...OVER THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING.  THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS SOME
STABLE LAYERS WITHIN IT AND EVEN WITH FAIRLY DECENT HEATING EXPECTED
ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS.  THE
FOOTHILLS...PALMER RIDGE AND PARK COUNTY CAN EXPECTED SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF STORMS TO START DEVELOPING BEFORE THE NOON HOUR.  THE
ISOLATED STORMS ON THE PLAINS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 2:30 PM.  THE
FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE START WILL HAVE NO SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

ON THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT SO ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

RJK