Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
252 PM MDT THU JUN 20 2002

PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AGAIN FOR ANOTHER
ACTIVE AFTN AND EVE. 1045AM SPSDEN PRETTY MUCH COVERS THE SITUATION
FOR THE NORTHEAST AND WONT REPEAT THE MESOSCALE DETAILS OTHER THAN
IT LOOKS ACTIVE AGAIN AS SCT STORMS LOOK TO FIRE OVER THE HIGHER
TRRN THIS AFTN AND THEN INTENSIFY OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE EVENING
HRS. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE
APPROPRIATE ZNS. WILL PLAN ON THE AREA GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT
OVERNGT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG ATTM AS MESOETA SFC
RHS BEGIN TO DRY OUT AFTER 09Z WITH LOW LVL FLOW TRENDING
SOUTHWESTERLY OR AT LEAST BCMG GOOD DRAINAGE. IF HEAVY RAIN AND/OR
HAIL DUMPS OVER A CERTAIN AREA THEN PERHAPS SOME LOCAL AREAS OF FOG
ALONG THE PLATTE MAY BE NEEDED LATER. FOR FRIDAY SOME DRYING BEGINS
OVR THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVLPG THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
ATMSPHR BUT SFC SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONT OVR THE PLAINS. FCST
CAPE VALUES FOR FRIDAY AFTN ARE ROUGHLY A THIRD OF TDYS PROJECTED
VALUES WITH A BIT MORE CIN TO FIGHT THROUGH. WILL KEEP CURRENT ISOLD
AFTN/EVE POPS FROM A BIT MORE MID LVL WARMING. FURTHER DRYING EAST
OF THE DIVIDE OCCURS FOR SAT AS STRONGER 850 AND 700 MB WINDS BOTH
GO SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME WEAK QG ASCENT WITH THE
SHORTWAVE EARLY SATURDAY BUT IT LOOKS AS IF TSTORMS WILL BE HIGH
BASED AND GUSTY DURING THE AFTN AND ESPECIALLY IN EVE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF SHORTWAVE. MDLS ALSO HINT AT A LEESIDE SFC TROUGH SAT AND
THEN STRENGTHENING INTO THE EARLY HRS OF SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE OF
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS MAY REFLECT THE UPPER LVL FRONT OR TROF
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. BY MIDDAY SUNDAY THE
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO STRENGTEN FURTHER OVR THE SOUTHWEST USA WITH
HIGHER HEIGHTS NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AVN SHOWS
EASTERLY WINDS DEVLOPING LATE IN THE DAY BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT ATTM
AND KEEP THE SUNDAY DRY.

LATER PERIODS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...RIGHT WITH CLIMATOLOGY IT
LOOKS LIKE THE OFFICIAL MARKING OF THE END OF SPRING IS RIGHT ON
SCHEDULE FOR LATE JUNE WITH A DROP OFF OF PRECIP AND WARMER TEMPS.
THE MRF IS PLANNING ON A MASSIVE RIDGE DOMINATING THE WESTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE NATION BY NEXT WEEK. TOUGH TO PINPOINT ANY FOCUS THAT WOULD
PROVIDE PRECIPITATION UNDER STRONG RIDGING AND WOULD RATHER KEEP ALL
DAYS IN THE EXTENDED DRY IN THE DROUGHT. FREDIN

.DEN...NONE

COZ036>049-210300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
820 PM MDT THU JUN 20 2002

...TORNADO WATCH FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS EXPIRED...

THE TORNADO WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
THIS EVENING.

AT 8 PM MDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED OVER PARK
COUNTY. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND
WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM MDT.  THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

COOPER

COZ036>049-210300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO...CORRECTED
820 PM MDT THU JUN 20 2002

...TORNADO WATCH FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO HAS EXPIRED...

THE TORNADO WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
THIS EVENING.

AT 8 PM MDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DETECTED OVER PARK
COUNTY. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND
WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM MDT.  THE STRONGER
STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

COOPER