Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM, AL
234 PM CDT MON APR 08 2002

LATEST MODEL RUNS TAKE SYSTEM THAT IS ON OUR DOOR STEP AND MOVES
IT STEADILY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  LATEST
SATELLITE LOOPS/RADAR LOOPS SHOW MCS ACROSS THE LOUISIANA COAST
SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AND THIS FEATURE WILL END UP IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH AL LATER TONIGHT.  MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE THE MCS
MOVING INTO THE SRN SECTIONS AND AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX THAT WILL
PASS ACROSS THE NW SECTIONS OVERNIGHT.  BELIEVE WIDESPREAD
SHWRS/TSTMS WILL OCCUR GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS AFTER
THAT.  WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS WEST AND LIKELY POPS EAST
TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WEST.

HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND LET
THE NEXT SHIFT OR MIDNIGHT SHIFT HAVE A BETTER LOOK.  OFTEN AN MCS
WILL PLAY HAVOC ON JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP WORKS NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA AND CAN AFFECT THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP
SIGNIFICANTLY.

ON TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS DURING
THE MORNING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50 KNOTS AND GOOD UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION...COUPLED WITH FRONT WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.  SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AS FRONT SLOWLY
WASHES OUT ACROSS THE SE SECTIONS AND WILL GO WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS
MOST LOCATIONS.  SMALL POPS ON WEDNESDAY FOR ANY RESIDUAL MSTR LEFT
OVER.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WILL GO WITH DRY/MILD CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.

HSV 61/69/54/69 ++42
BHM 63/70/56/71 ++42
MGM 63/72/59/74 7+73

.BHM...NONE.

ALZ001>050-082029-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
129 PM CDT MON APR 08 2002

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO WIND SPEEDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.  THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH TO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE TONIGHT.  THE AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES ALABAMA.
THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...BUT SEVERE STORMS COULD AFFECT SUMTER...MARENGO...
GREENE...HALE...PERRY...AND DALLAS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF MISSISSIPPI.

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE REQUIRED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.